I too, think Biden would have won.
there is no doubt he would have carried MI and PA, 36 EV’s; he’d still need the 1 ME EV to win...
I am not so sure. Trump’s campaign would have adjusted for Biden being their candidate and gone after him more ruthlessly than he could against a female candidate. Trump would have been completely unrestrained..and we can only guess what kind of language he would have used. And then, after a lifetime in politics what exactly are bidens achievements ? Trump could have pinned the last 8 years more directly on Biden than he did on Hillary.