Ride-hailing companies will grow eightfold by 2030, dwarfing the taxi industry: Goldman Sachs

Ride-hailing will grow eightfold by then and could be five times the size of the taxi market, justifying the giant valuations, the report said. At $68 billion and $50 billion, respectively, Uber and Didi are the two most highly valued venture-backed companies, according to data firm CB Insights.

Central to the growth of this industry, according to Goldman Sachs, is the proliferation of self-driving cars.

That cross-country test was still only a test, and because those vehicles are still being tested, the engineers and development companies are still having to monitor and take over under certain conditions. However, that’s not to say that the vehicle could not have completed the test without the engineers’ help or intervention. When it comes to local roads, well, there are still many municipalities that have not authorized self-driven vehicles on their roads.

When it comes to the two challenges you mention for the self-driven vehicles, well...

Trust comes with experience, and when most people experience of read/hear about the many advantages and safety built into the self-driven vehicles, then the trust will come, and people will start trusting those vehicles more than they would trust their own driving skills. Being apprehensive about something new, is a human trait, but like I said, it takes time and experiencing something for people to come around.

Your second challenge will turn out to be a moot point, because, once autonomous vehicles become accepted and entrenched into everyday life, people will start realizing that they don’t need to own those vehicles, and will instead opt to go the ride-hailing route, where they just issue a call for a vehicle as the need arises, and will never have to pony up for purchasing those vehicles. Furthermore, there won’t be a premium price to be paid for the new technology, since, once it becomes commonplace, the prices will come down, and in fact, the prices of most of those (if not all) will come down. Why? Well, because with the autonomous tech, a lot of the mechanical parts that a person uses to steer and move a car, won’t be there anymore. So, those vehicles will be swapping out some current tech for new future tech, and it could end up even in price or actually less. A steering column has a lot of tech and moving parts in it, and so do the brakes and gas pedals, and heck, even the rearview and side mirrors will be gone.

So, no premium prices, and no concerns about trusting the technology. It will take time, but it will happen, and perhaps sooner than most people suspect.

While the Federal Highway Administration is doing detailed assessments of the legal, infrastructure and operational issues associated with self-driving cars, the Federal Railroad Administration is considering a new regulation for the railroad industry that would require -- for safety reasons -- two crew members in every locomotive instead of just one.

Now think about how much more complicated a roadway system is compared to a railroad -- i.e., a system with two degrees of freedom (forward/backwards and laterally) and countless interactions with bicycles and pedestrians vs. a system with one degree of freedom (forward/backwards) and very limited needs to account for external influences -- and ask yourself if this makes any sense at all.

I'm still trying to envision a scenario where people will give up their cars and instead opt to use automated vehicles operated by companies like Uber and Lyft. I can see this having great appeal in urban areas, but these are areas where many people are already giving up their cars anyway. In that sense, the automated vehicle is competing not against a conventional car, but against subways and buses.

I can definitely see automated vehicles introduced as a cost-saving measure in cases where a cost reduction is realized by having the driver replaced -- such as taxi cabs and the trucking industry.

A railroad system is old technology, while self-driven vehicles are very technologically advanced. Technology on railroad systems is less complicated, and trains don’t go everywhere a car or truck can go. Railroads are limited to their tracks, while vehicles can go just about anywhere where a GPS can guide them to, and just about anywhere that the terrain is favorable.

Notice that, somebody had to include the line of “for safety reasons”, as justification for creating a new job. With self-driven vehicles, jobs will be eliminated, while the cost of living will go down for those not involved in the automobile and oil industries.

Even with the many types of encounters and obstacles that will be found on the roads, self-driven vehicles will still prove to be superior to humans when it comes to safety. NO human alive can detect as many obstacles and as many different obstacles are a self-driven vehicle, and no human alive can react to problems on the road as quickly and as safely as s self-driven vehicle. The system won’t be 100% perfect, but then, humans will be a lot less safer when in control of their vehicles.

I can see that with future enhancements and developments, that the roads themselves will have to include technology that will bring self-driven vehicles much closer to being 100% safe, though never fully 100%.

I won’t be around to see full 100% implementation of self-driven vehicles, and neither will most people alive today. But, we’ll get there eventually, just like adopting the horseless carriage took decades towards almost 100% adoption and acceptance.

what happens when Über investors stop subsidizing each ride by about 50% ?>>> free market applies both to the price of the stock investors buy and the price of the ride. I think the medallion scam by cabs is far costlier. i’m not sure i understand subsidize. There are many forms of investing but the decision of putting ones own money forward to purchase some rights of a company in a market is usually based on risk v reward. from a customer experience i would pay a premium for the service and people who drive as compared to most of the cab drivers i have experienced over the years. On rainy days i would call a cab and they would never show up so i ended up walking to work, wet. now any where i am i just open the app and there poof is a driver (by name, face picture and car) i also think uber is private — soon to do an ipo which i am not sure why they need capital unless the owners just want to cash out. and the price fluxtuates based on drivers and requests. I had a guy drive me to work in a snow storm in a dodge challenger. i think it was $14 bucks.

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