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To: buwaya
The question is - just how irrational are they?

That's the big unknown: I can see what the US wants (no NK nukes), I can even see the Chinese stirring things up with NK to cause trouble for the US, SK and Japan.

But what are the NK's getting out of this? The eight years of Obama's apology tour (and previous admin's flaccidity) convinced them that the US would do nothing. Now that it apears that we will (and may have the Chinese on our side), it's not clear how the NK's can climb down from the limb upon which they sit.

My guess is the only way to prevent NK having ICBM's with nukes is regime change in Pyongyang.

78 posted on 04/12/2017 9:00:06 AM PDT by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens")
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To: pierrem15

Like any other place, NK is not NK is not NK.
You have the interests of the regime - what they gain is that they keep on being boss, or at the right hand of the boss.

And then you have the interests of the next layer below, who would implement whatever threats are made by the top. They lead the military and operate whatever strategic weapons the regime has. And who AFAIK are held to their obedience through fear - for both their lives and their relative status, and despair of being rid of the leadership.

And the next layer below is held down by general fear, misery and despair.

The critical part is the loyalty of the second layer, the manager and expert class. Its their rationality that is at issue.

The nukes are there to protect the layer on top, and act as blackmail for foreign subsidies, as usual for NK since 1991.


85 posted on 04/12/2017 9:42:53 AM PDT by buwaya
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