Top Syrian Army defector not surprised by chemical attacks, says toxins (trunc)

Appalling images of Syrian babies gasping for breath and others foaming at the mouth after the Damascus regime hit a rebel-held town with chemical weapons has stunned the world. But people were almost as stunned last week that Syria still had chemical weapons because the Kremlin in June 2014 had vouched publicly for their complete eradication.

One man who certainly wasn’t stunned that Syria had such weapons and would use them was Syrian Brig. Gen. Zaher al-Sakat, once the Bashar regime’s chemical weapons chief in charge of such operations.

In an interview this week with Fox News, Sakat remained steadfast that there is no way his former boss, Syrian President Bashar Assad, would ever "completely his arsenal. Sakat said that in 2013 he was ordered -- from the top -- to use chemical weapons, phosgene and chlorine, on three separate occasions.

https://emergency.cdc.gov/agent/sarin/basics/facts.asp

https://emergency.cdc.gov/agent/chlorine/basics/facts.asp

https://emergency.cdc.gov/agent/sulfurmustard/basics/facts.asp

https://emergency.cdc.gov/agent/agentlistchem.asp

A doctor working in Idlib province, identifying himself on Twitter as a British-trained physician currently volunteering as a “humanitarian aid worker in northern Syria,” posted a video in which he demonstrates how survivors of the alleged Khan Sheikhoun attack have “pin-point pupils that do not respond to light.” He claims it is evidence that the strikes used the banned chemical weapon sarin gas.

Do u still doubt that #Sarin is being used on us? Non-reactive pinpoint pupils! We have samples. Will anyone care!? Who will stop it?#Syria pic.twitter.com/WmhDZgLVA6
— Dr Shajul Islam (@DrShajulIslam) April 4, 2017

Hamish de Bretton Gordon, a former chemical and biological weapons chief for the British army, told CBS News that, judging from the images and video posted online from Khan Sheikhoun, the attack seemed more likely to have involved a nerve agent than the more readily available and far less lethal chlorine.

“It does appear to be a nerve agent. If the casualty toll is as high as they claim then it’s likely sarin,” de Bretton Gordon said. “Even the biggest chlorine attacks have only seen one or two deaths with 30 plus injuries.”

He said it was unlikely a mustard gas attack as the victims showed no external blistering.

The assessment was shared by another chemical weapons expert who told CBS News on Tuesday that the videos appeared to show victims of a possible sarin gas attack.

“It is looking distinctly like an attack with something considerably more potent than chlorine or mustard gas. A nerve agent like sarin would fit the descriptions I have read of symptoms,” Alastair Hay, a professor of environmental toxicology at Leeds University in England, said.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/syria-alleged-poison-gas-chemical-attack-khan-sheikhoun-idlib-civilians/

A Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) medical team supporting the emergency department at Bab Al Hawa Hospital in Syria’s Idlib Province has confirmed that patients’ symptoms are consistent with exposure to a neurotoxic agent.

A number of victims of the April 4 attack on the town of Khan Sheikhoun were brought to the hospital, located about 60 miles to the north, near the Turkish border. Eight people who were examined by MSF staff displayed symptoms consistent with exposure to an agent such as sarin gas or similar compounds, including constricted pupils, muscle spasms and involuntary defecation.

The MSF team provided drugs and antidotes to treat patients, and distributed protective clothing to medical staff in the hospital’s emergency room.

MSF medical teams also visited other hospitals treating victims of the attack, and reported that they smelled of bleach, indicative of possible exposure to chlorine.

These reports strongly suggest that victims of the attack on Khan Sheikhoun were exposed to at least two different chemical agents.

http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/article/syria-khan-sheikhoun-victims-show-symptoms-consistent-exposure-chemical-substances

Early U.S. assessments showed the use of chlorine gas and traces of the nerve agent sarin in the attack Tuesday that terrorized the Syrian town of Khan Sheikhoun, according to two U.S. officials who weren’t authorized to speak publicly on the matter and demanded anonymity.

http://time.com/4728155/nerve-gas-sarin-chlorine-syria-chemica-attack/

The Syrian military said it “categorically denied” responsibility. Russia, which has heavily backed the Syrian regime, said its planes were not operating near Idlib. Early on Wednesday, the Russian defence ministry claimed a Syrian airstrike had hit a “terrorist warehouse” containing an arsenal of “toxic substances” destined for fighters in Iraq. The ministry did not state if the attack was deliberate.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Hamish de Bretton Gordon, director of Doctors Under Fire and former commanding officer of the UK Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Regiment, said this claim was “completely untrue”.

“No I think this [claim] is pretty fanciful, no doubt the Russians trying to protect their allies,” he said. “Axiomatically, if you blow up sarin, you destroy it.”

“It’s very clear it’s a sarin attack,” he added. “The view that it’s an al-Qaida or rebel stockpile of sarin that’s been blown up in an explosion, I think is completely unsustainable and completely untrue.”

“In this most recent attack, dozens of children suffocated to death while they slept,” said Ahmad Tarakji, the head of the Syrian American Medical Society (Sams), which supports hospitals in opposition-controlled areas in Syria.

Sams said its doctors had determined that the symptoms of the patients were consistent with exposure to organic phosphorus compounds such as the nerve agent sarin, which is banned by the chemical weapons convention.

Smith said: “If you look at the footage itself, the victims don’t have any physical trauma injuries. There is foaming and pinpointed pupils, in particular. This appears to be some kind of organo-phosphate poison. In theory, a nerve agent. What is striking is that it would appear to be more than chlorine. The toxicity of chlorine does not lend itself to the sort of injuries and numbers that we have seen.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/04/syria-chemical-attack-idlib-province

A series of investigations by the United Nations and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) found that various parties in the Syrian war had used chlorine, sulfur mustard gas and sarin.

Idlib province contains the largest populated area controlled by anti-Assad rebels - both nationalist Free Syrian Army groups and powerful Islamist factions including the former al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front.

Idlib’s population has ballooned, with thousands of fighters and civilians shuttled out of Aleppo city and areas around Damascus that the government has retaken in recent months as Assad has gained the upper hand in the war.

Following the 2013 attack, Syria joined the international Chemical Weapons Convention under a U.S.-Russian deal, averting the threat of U.S.-led military intervention.

Under the deal, Syria agreed to give up its toxic arsenal and surrendered 1,300 tonnes of toxic weapons and industrial chemicals to the international community for destruction.

U.N.-OPCW investigators found, however, that it continued to use chlorine, which is widely available and hard to trace, in so-called barrel bombs dropped from helicopters. Chlorine is not a banned substance, but the use of any chemical is banned under 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention, to which Syria is a member.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-idlib-idUSKBN1760IB

The World Health Organisation (WHO) said the symptoms were consistent with “exposure to organophosphorus chemicals, a category of chemicals that includes nerve agents” that are banned as weapons of mass destruction.

Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) seconded the analysis, saying medical teams that treated affected patients in Bab al-Hawa found symptoms “consistent with exposure to a neurotoxic agent such as sarin gas”.

Doctors also detected the smell of bleach on some victims, “suggesting they had been exposed to chlorine” as one of at least two different chemical agents.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-chemical-attack-idlib-sarin-gas-toxic-khan-sheikhoun-russia-assad-claims-experts-evidence-a7668996.html

Symptom	Sarin¹	Chlorine²	Mustard³	Present⁴
blisters/redness/itch		x	x	N
burning nose/throat/eyes		x
watery eyes	x	x	x
pinpoint pupils	x			Y
blurred vision	x	x
chest tightness/shortness of breath/rapid breathing	x	x	x
coughing/wheezing	x	x	x
sweating	x
drooling	x
runny nose	x		x
nausea/vomiting	x	x	x
diarrhea/increased urination	x		x	Y
confusion	x
drowsiness	x
weakness	x
headache	x
altered heart rate	x
altered blood pressure	x
convulsions	x			Y
paralysis	x
loss of consciousness	x
fever			x
blindness			x

1 https://emergency.cdc.gov/agent/sarin/basics/facts.asp
2 https://emergency.cdc.gov/agent/chlorine/basics/facts.asp
3 https://emergency.cdc.gov/agent/sulfurmustard/basics/facts.asp
4 http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3543150/posts?page=22#22

Other Considerations:

• Smelled of bleach
• In the CBS article the doctor uses the word "us"
• Doctors Without Borders distributed protective clothing to medical staff
• "Axiomatically, if you blow up sarin, you destroy it"

The CBS article quotes Dr Shajul Islam as claiming sarin was used. The doctor uses the word "us" so there may be some bias, even if unintended.

Doctors Without Borders issued protective clothing to staff. Numerous reports show photos and videos of unprotected persons handling victims. According to the CDC, a person’s clothing can release sarin after it has come in contact with sarin vapor, which can lead to exposure of other people; a person who touches a contaminated surface may experience symptoms within seconds to hours of exposure. I have not found reports of secondary exposures. I am not an expert in CW, but this appears to indicate that if sarin was used either it was very weak or only a small amount was present and thus affected a limited number of persons. Another possibility is that crudely made sarin was dispersed when struck by conventional weapons (terrorist manufactured sarin) - just a possibility.

Both Doctors Without Borders and "two [unnamed] U.S. officials" believe chlorine and traces of sarin were used. This fits the available information.

Does blowing up sarin destroy it? Or does it disperse it?

Symptoms indicate sarin, yet unprotected persons handle victims and suffer no effects.

Victims smell of chlorine but do not display symptoms of chlorine poisoning.

Neither sarin nor chlorine are clearly indicated, there is contradictory information.

So...

Chlorine in insufficient concentrations to cause symptoms

Trace amounts of sarin ("trace" was the description used by the unnamed US officials).

Assad is known to have used sarin and chlorine. Terrorists are known to have manufactured and used chlorine.

What are the combos? What is the known history?


---------------- Combos ----------------      --------------- History ----------------
Assad      Assad   Terrorist   Terrorist      Assad      Assad   Terrorist   Terrorist
Chlorine   Sarin   Chlorine    Sarin          Chlorine   Sarin   Chlorine    Sarin    
   n         n         n         n                
   n         n         n         y                                             n
   n         n         y         n                                   y
   n         n         y         y                                   y         n
   n         y         n         n                         y   
   n         y         n         y                         y                   n
   n         y         y         n                         y         y
   n         y         y         y                         y         y         n
   y         n         n         n                y
   y         n         n         y                y                            n
   y         n         y         n                y                  y
   y         n         y         y                y                  y         n
   y         y         n         n                y        y
   y         y         n         y                y        y                   n
   y         y         y         n                y        y         y
   y         y         y         y                y        y         y         n

Either Assad or terrorists could be responsible for chlorine.

Unless terrorists have captured sarin munitions or learned to manufacture them, the sarin came from Assad.

This indicates that it is practically a 100% certainty that Assad is solely responsible, although there is a possibility that chlorine was incidentally dispersed when terrorist weapons were struck by conventional Syrian bombs in which case both Assad and terrorists are responsible.

There also is a possiblity that sarin was not used. The CDC info cited in a previous post states "Showing these signs and symptoms does not necessarily mean that a person has been exposed to sarin." That combined with unprotected persons handling victims and suffering no effects seems to indicate that perhaps sarin is not the agent. Sarin use has been exclusively Assad. If sarin is not the agent then the practically 100% certainty of Assad being solely responsible is weakened.

Citing an unspecified US Army intelligence (NGIC) report this September 2013 article[1] states:

The document, classified Secret/Noforn, revealed that AQI had produced a “bench-scale” form of sarin in Iraq and then transferred it to Turkey.

“This (document) depicts our assessment of the status of effort at its peak – primarily research and procurement activities – when disrupted in late May 2013 with the arrest of several key individuals in Iraq and Turkey,” the document said.

“Future reporting of indicators not previously observed would suggest that the effort continues to advance despite the arrests,” the NGIC document said.

The May 2013 seizure occurred when Turkish security forces discovered a two-kilogram cylinder with sarin gas while searching homes of Syrian militants from the al-Qaida-linked Jabhat al-Nusra Front following their initial detention.

The sarin gas was found in the homes of suspected Syrian Islamic radicals detained in the southern provinces of Adana and Mersia.

Some 12 suspected members of the al-Nusra Front were arrested.

The NGIC depiction of the variety of sarin as “bench-scale” reinforces an analysis by terrorism expert Yossef Bodansky, who said the recent findings on the chemical weapons attack of Aug. 21 on the outskirts of Damascus, Syria, was “indeed a self-inflicted attack” by the Syrian opposition to provoke U.S. and military intervention in Syria.

Bodansky, a former director of the U.S. Congressional Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare, said a preliminary analysis of the sarin showed that it was of a “kitchen” variety and not military grade.

He questioned that the sarin was of a military variety, which accumulates around victims’ hair and loose clothing.

Because these molecules become detached and released with any movement, Bodansky said, “they would have thus killed or injured the first responders who touched the victims’ bodies without protective clothes … and masks.”

Various videos of the incident clearly show first responders going from patient to patient without protective clothing administering first aid to the victims. There were no reports of casualties among the first responders.

“This strongly indicates that the agent in question was the slow acting ‘kitchen sarin,’” Bodansky said.

“Indeed, other descriptions of injuries treated by MSF (The French group Doctors Without Borders) – suffocation, foaming, vomiting and diarrhea – agree with the effects of diluted, late-action drops of liquefied Sarin,” he said.

The May 2013 seizure was reported by the Chicago Tribune[2]:

ANKARA, May 30 (Reuters) - Turkish authorities have arrested a group of Syria’s al Qaeda-linked al-Nusra Front militants who allegedly had been planning an attack inside Turkey and were in possession of the nerve agent sarin, local media reported on Thursday.

The 12 Nusra members were arrested in the southern city of Adana, some 100 km (60 miles) from Syria, during raids at their addresses where police uncovered 2 kg (4.5 pounds) of sarin as well as heavy weapons

[1] http://www.wnd.com/2013/09/u-s-military-confirms-rebels-had-sarin/

[2] http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-05-30/news/sns-rt-syria-crisisturkeyl3n0eb2uy-20130530_1_nusra-front-chemical-weapons-jonathon-burch

The effects described in the WND article correspond with the effects described at Khan Sheikhoun.

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