Regime change? So we have a western-friendly regime waiting in the wings, all ready to go?
Regime change? So we have a western-friendly regime waiting in the wings, all ready to go?
I’m guessing it will have to be a military coup with probably the Syrian National Council being installed, at least, initially.
Who to broker the coup ?
This is getting nuts.
>>Regime change? So we have a western-friendly regime waiting in the wings, all ready to go?<<
That is what I have been thinking. The LAST thing in the world we need is to create another Afghanistan or Iraq.
C'mon. Afghanistan? Iraq? Libya? Egypt? It's not like we're amateurs here.
I don’t think this is as much as western-friendly as it is about gas-pipeline friendly. Europe gets ~25% of its natural gas from Russia which gives them a lot of leverage on the west and NATO.
If Assad is replaced w the right player, the gas pipelines from Qatar and KSA will go thru and in 5 years Russian gas sales to Europe will become less significant.
Some see this as long-term economic containment of Russia. Russia sees this as vital to their national security, thus everyone’s willingness to full out fight a proxy war over it.
I’m not saying I agree with any of this, but this is the rationale I believe many in this and prior admins had.
The question becomes, for me at least, is the threat from Russia as significant as from ISIS? I don’t think it is, but I do think Russia needs to be contained. Putin is cagey, smart, and willing to do what it takes to maintain and grow power. Is containment of Russia worthy of risking American lives over? No, I don’t believe so. In that light, I don’t mind the cruise missile strike whatsoever, but I would be highly dubious of a legitimate troop deployment. Remember, you can’t negotiate a fair deal without leverage, and in Syria we had little to no leverage any longer. Obama squandered all of it and that is impacting not just the ME but in other places around the world.
A good question is - how possible it is for the United States to either confront or cut a deal with Russia in Syria (and Ukraine?) whilst also going forward with a major anti-ISIS / anti-terror campaign which I believe will be announced within weeks.
I think we will find out, because Trump appears to be headed this direction. I think it is possible to replace Assad without escalating into direct conflict, find a deal w Russia on the pipelines, and form a coalition of nations to really go after ISIS.