Posted on 04/07/2017 9:37:15 PM PDT by Jack Hydrazine
Edited on 04/08/2017 12:10:43 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
The last thing Russia wants to do is poke the Eagle.
They know nukes are assured mutual destruction.
They can't go toe to toe with conventional.
They have 13 SSBN's and can only do 5 tours total,for 13 boats, in a year.
Because of that, their sailors aren't able to adequately man their ships.
About half their entire naval fleet sits in port at any one time. We know where all their subs are.
They can't afford to maintain their fleet or do tours. Their recon is limited.
They have one aircraft carrier
One battle cruiser
3 cruisers
15 destroyers
6 frigates
81 corvettes
13 ballistic missile subs
7 cruise missile subs
41 attack subs
168 vessels that project power.
HALF are in port
The rest are easy access for subs or aircraft or surface ships.
This isn't 1940 Pearl Harbor. Planes don't even need to get that close to targets.
TWO ships just launched 59 Tomahawks.
A coordinated effort could launch missiles and torpedoes that would impact every ship and sub within seconds of each other.
A first strike could have Russias navy unable to do anything.
You post this crap like we should be terrified of Russia.
They have as much or more reason to fear us.
In the end, NEITHER country wants a confrontation.
You post this crap like we should be terrified of Russia. They have as much or more reason to fear us.
In the end, NEITHER country wants a confrontation.
I love it when someone who knows what they're talking about sets these "pearl clutchers" straight.
Rock on Mountain Man.
That's one hell of an assumption. If a US plane is shot down over Syrian air space, world opinion is going to be with the Russians.
Syria is not worth a nuclear war.
Some powerful people believe that the world would be better off with a population of a few millions. Others believe that a (limited?) war would be the only solution to America's awful debt problem.
They want to poke the bear. They have bunkers and no consciences; they don't care.
Thanks.
That same ‘expert’ doctor apparently received a supply of gas masks two days before this chemical explosion.
You’ve probably seen this already, but check out the links in this:
http://disobedientmedia.com/evidence-calls-western-narrative-about-syrian-chemical-incident-into-question/
This link also contains the infamous tweet from an arabic journalist warning about the ‘chemical strike’ a day before it happened.
Thanks. I had seen elsewhere about the journalist announcing his report on the gassing incident before it even happened.
Terrorist have been staging these sad stories and pictures of dead and dying children forever, but the west falls for it every time.
I wish they would be friends. It is insane to go into an enemy status with Russia again. between the United States and Russia we could control this planet very nicely and really put a crimp in Islam. We could also check Chinese ambitions and rein it back in to his rightful place.
You make cogent arguments.
However Russia does have a realistic chance of shooting down an intruding plane, and has every reason to attempt it.
If they managed to shoot down a US plane over Syrian airspace, would that be war? No. They would score points, and Trump would lose face.
But the US can deal with a comprehensive Russian AA screen. They can stage a massive air/missile assault to take out the Russian air defences in Syria.
What happens if the US does this?
There would be a nuclear exchange. Not a war - an exchange.
This is because you are correct. Russia has very few elements that are anything like a match for the US. Some of their kit is embarassing.
But they do have nuclear weapons. So many nuclear weapons. So in retaliation for suppression of their Syrian AA, they’d probably destroy a remote US base with a tactical nuke.
Or start testing the Cumbre Vieja hypothesis, God forbid.
Let’s be realistic. The Russians do have options. It’s just that their conventional weakness moves their options into the field of tactical nuclear exchanges.
If the West has decided (God knows why) to support Al-Queda and ISIS in Syria, then we need to shift mental gears back to the 50’s and start thinking in terms of nuclear brinkmanship.
Whether tactical nuke or not.
A nuke is a nuke.
They’ll not open that can.
It’s a war they can’t win.
As far as shooting down our planes, they’re just posturing.
Bold talk, but terrible ramifications.
Again, a war they can’t win.
Just a warning shot from a missile, that runs wild, is still an attack. At that point we are able to retaliate.
Our AWACS will pick up the SAM site and a cruise missile will take it out.
I don’t see Russia doing anything, other than barking.
They know that the moment they do do something, we have the capability to end it.
Right now, they get to show off their hardware against weak adversaries, to all the regional players, in hopes of selling some.
But, should they decide to attack us, they know we can turn their best and not so best equipment to scrap.
Kinda kills trade deals.
Russia’s military deals are a huge part of their economy.
"As previous British army, something bothers me about this. One of the doctors showed some of the victims who had recovered from symptoms after treatment with Atropine.That could well be true and is good news, but to be effective it has to be injected instantly, this is why British army in NBC gear carry Atropine.
But my point is why would this small village(sic) have a good supply of Atropine? My only conclusion is that on health and safety grounds this would be necessary if you were making nerve agents. Some of these factories have been found by the troops on the way to Mosul created by ISIS."
(typos removed, punctuation + emphasis added by me)
I'm raising this question of Atropine availability to (kind of) shoot it down.
Khan Shaykhun has a population of 50,000 - I don't think any of us would describe it as a village. I don't believe my home town (which is about the same size as Khan Shaykhun) would have a useful supply of atropine immediately available, but then my home town isn't in a country ravaged by islamic crazies with chemical weapons.
So it may (I don't know) be reasonable for a Syrian town to have loads of atropine available at a moments notice.
But if a FReeper has better information, please let me know. Because if this presence of atropine is unusual, then this could be clear evidence of a chemical warfare factory in Khan Shaykhun.
indeed
Russia is our natural ally
Dude,
you do know that 1/2 of USN ships are also always ‘in port’ ?
A single pinpoint strike on Russian AA would not incur an exchange. But while there's Russian AA in-theatre, the Russians can deny the airspace.
So the US carries out a theatre-wide assault on Russian AA sites in Syria. Shock and awe. The whole shebang.
At that point Russia can respond with a nuclear weapon without triggering megadeath.
Why? Because they would be clearly acting in reponse to US aggression. The world would look at the smoking hole in Diego Garcia, or at the irradiated remains of a carrier group and say, "huh, well I guess the US had that coming".
Imagine just one painfully realistic scenario. After an general attack on Russian AA, a nuclear mine goes off in the mediterranean. It sinks US naval assets, and fries one hell of a lot of fish. Would that lead inexorably to world-wide megadeath?
No. It would be seen as a proportional response to US aggression. The two reasons why it would be seen this way is because (a) it would indeed be a proportional response and b) because the alternative would be nuclear megadeath.
The unthinkable nature of megadeath will prevent instant megadeath - as long as single, limited strikes are carried out.
This ugly piece of nuclear calculus is going to become common parlance if the West ramps up its hostility towards the Syrian government.
In this link there is a tweet from Dr Shajul Islam that runs as follows:
"Do U still doubt that Sarin is being used on us? Non-reactive pinpoint pupils. We have samples. Will anyone care? Who will stop it?"
But Sarin clearly wasn't used on the victims of Khan Sheikhoun. There are photos of the infamous White Helmets handling bodies without hazmat gear.
So ... where did Dr Islam get his samples of Sarin?
Atropine I can understand. But Sarin?
It looks like the initial attempt to portray this as a Sarin attack just backfired spectacularly. Dr Islam has effectively admitted that there was a chemical weapon plant at Khan Sheikhoun.
What does “memorandum of understanding on flight safety” mean? This terminology is so obscure, it is impossible to make sense of it.
I suspect one of two things.
One: The media is making this up as they go along.
Two: Russia is doing the usual bit of posturing to ‘save face’ and there’s no meaning behind it.
Damn them all to Hell.
“US Planes are Fair Game Now”
Ok, guess this means Russian planes are fair game in return. This would be a fight the Russians can’t win and they know it.
If Russia wants to start World War 3 over an airfield in Syria, then Russia needs to be put down, permanently.
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