Here's what I suspect happened (and it's very similar to what you've presented):
1. The Obama administration -- in collusion with the Clinton campaign -- conducted potentially illegal surveillance on the Trump campaign. This surveillance began at least as far back as June or July of 2016.
2. They were never concerned about getting caught because they assumed Clinton would win the election and the surveillance would never be exposed.
3. Clinton lost the election -- a scenario beyond anyone's wildest imagination at the time.
4. Everyone involved with the surveillance realized that the incoming president and his new administration will have access to all of the internal dealings of the agencies involved in the surveillance ... and says a collective: "Holy sh!t -- what do we do now?!"
5. With the cooperation of their media/propaganda partners, all of these characters start running around in November and December spreading baseless stories about "Russian hacking" of the 2016 election -- for the sole purpose of retroactively justifying the surveillance that they knew was going to get exposed.
In other words, the whole Russian story was a complete hoax. It wasn't mainly aimed at damaging Trump, but at justifying surveillance by the Obama administration that may very well have been illegal.
Well reasoned out.
Why would one waste time, money and resources eavesdropping on the campaign of a political opponent one openly disrespects and feels confident they will easily beat? I don’t get that part of the equation.