Posted on 03/14/2017 7:50:25 AM PDT by billorites
The United States has a curious history of forging particularly close relationships with countries with which it was once at war – just ask Germany, Japan, and the United States’ colonial parent the United Kingdom. Recent trends suggest that it is time for the United States to add Vietnam to that list. Officially Communist, Vietnam might seem like an odd partner for the United States. However, U.S. security interests in Southeast Asia, the clear preference of Vietnamese officials for closer ties, and the opportunity to improve governance and human rights protections in Vietnam should make a U.S. push for closer relations, an uncontroversial priority.
The top question to ask of any new international relationship is what interest it serves that would not be met otherwise. U.S. economic and security interests in Southeast Asia are immense, with over 60 percent of U.S. exports flowing throughout the broader Asia-Pacific region. Vietnam is strategically located next to the Southeast Asian trade choke points and the South China Sea. Given China’s role as both a top trade partner and frequent geopolitical rival of the United States, its reliance on shipments of oil and other goods through the South China Sea only magnifies the area’s importance.
Historically, the United States has relied on the Philippines and Thailand as key Southeast Asian partners, but the reliability of these partnerships has been called into question. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has made recurring statements for downgrading U.S. ties. Additionally, given the potential instability of Thailand’s military Junta, especially without the steady hand of the now deceased long-time ally King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the future of the country’s relationship is unclear. The unstable and uncertain nature of these historical alliances should motivate the United States to diversify its partnerships in that region. Vietnam is well positioned to step into the gap as a strong and stable regional trade and security partner.
Vietnamese leaders have already demonstrated a concrete interest in closer economic and security ties with the United States. In 2015, the Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary, Nguyen Phu Trong, visited the United States as part of an unprecedented high-level meeting aimed at strengthening relations. This was in part an attempt by Vietnamese leaders to reduce their country's dependence on (and resulting vulnerability to) their powerful Chinese neighbors. In addition to Vietnam's disproportionate economic dependence on China, the two countries remain locked in a tense territorial dispute in the South China Sea. Perhaps reflecting these concerns, polls show that the Vietnamese public’s opinion of the United States is much more favorable than its opinion of China. The combination of clear strategic incentives for Vietnam, support for closer ties with Vietnamese leaders, and a positive view of the United States among the Vietnamese public should make the opportunity to tighten the relationship a clear case of low-hanging fruit for U.S. policymakers and diplomats.
Vietnam’s poor human rights record remains the main sticking point for US policymakers. However, past U.S. policy toward the Vietnamese government has failed to produce any serious improvement in the country’s human rights situation in the decades since the Vietnam War. In fact, the primary leverage that the United States has over Vietnamese policy is precisely through the potential economic and security benefits that a closer bilateral relationship would offer. The United States, therefore, has a chance to incentivize improved human rights practices in Vietnam through carrots instead of sticks.
There are several ways in which U.S. policymakers can capitalize on this opportunity. Although the Vietnamese government seems to have reduced its focus on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) since it became clear that the United States would not participate, it remains committed to boosting international trade as an economic priority. U.S. and Vietnamese officials could revisit some of their respective proposals and goals from the recent TPP negotiations as a starting point for a new bilateral trade agreement. Additionally, the Obama Administration ended a long-standing U.S. arms embargo on Vietnam in 2016, which opened the door for defense procurement deals and other forms of military cooperation. The United States could work to secure Vietnamese participation in multilateral exercises, such as the Rim of the Pacific drills. Offering incentives on both the economic and military fronts in exchange for U.S. expert assistance on issues like the rule of law, human rights, and transparency in daily governance, for example, could prove more effective than top-down mandates on human rights issues directed at senior leaders in Hanoi.
So far, the Trump administration has provided little detail on how it will approach issues in Southeast Asia, beyond taking a tough line on China’s expansive territorial claims in the South China Sea. The administration should recognize the opportunity that strengthened bilateral ties with Vietnam would provide to secure US interests and positions in this critical region.
I believe I mentioned the Korean War, and that was the context for including China as an adversary and now trading partner. Japan and Germany were obviously mentioned in the context of WWII.
I have travelled a lot to Vietnam (mainly the south) for business over the last 10 years. It is developing extremely quickly. There is very strong good-will towards the United States. Many people have friends/relatives who have become Americans, and they see large business opportunity and view the USA positively, and as an open and free country. In the south, it is also surprisingly Christian country - one sees churches everywhere, and on Sundays they are packed and overflowing. I admit I have less exposure to the North, where people are more reserved and have spent a longer time under Communism and bureaucracy.
There are many opportunities for the USA in Vietnam - political, social, strategic.
If having closer relations now with Viet Nam means having more Americans killed, so that Communist Viet Nam is protected from Communist China, I would defer and tell the Vietnamese to start passing out the black pajamas again.
Have you seen Saigon, lately?
No. I would not have recognized it.
I’ve been to Saigon twice, in the early 90s. The second time was about a month after Clinton lifted the embargo. The tallest buildings were the old hotels — ten stories at most.
When you went to a sidewalk cafe, they gave you ancient thermos bottles of hot water to add to the drip coffee, usually rusted through on the bottom. The spoon you used to stir it was tiny and weighed nothing, made of cheap aluminum.
One thing that told me Vietnam was getting richer was when they started selling Vinacafe instant coffee sachets, and they were giving away pretty good quality stirring spoons in each bag.
Vietnam has been an ancient foe of China since it once was “Cochin China.” Vietnam’s oldest ally is India. India and Vietnam would make pretty decent allies...
You think the US would have learned its lesson when it comes to dealing with communist regimes, like china for example.
We need to stop dealing with communists, period.
As a Nam vet I say we should open the door with Vietnam. Better to have allies against China. Especially ones who have kicked the tar out of China.
All commies are not created equal. It was the Vietnamese who curbed the Khmer Rouge, not the oh so superior West.
Let’s wait until the last WWII vet dies before having anything to do with Germany, Japan, and Italy.
Let’s wait until the last Cold War vet dies before having anything to do with Germany, Eastern Europe, or Russia.
Anything sooner is an insult.
I’m with you, Jack. I went back with my daughter in 2000. People in the South still go crazy for Americans. As for the North, we can help them bust up that monstrous Soviet-style blockhouse that houses Uncle Ho’s mummy. They know that we’d be bringing better money than the ruskies.
Vietnam opened up quite a bit from the 90s on, welcoming back their entrepreneurial counterparts abroad...and particularly from America...even young people with no memories of the War, and it has paid off big time.
Saigon is a wide open free enterprise zone where people are making money hand over fist.
About midway up the coast in Danang the reins are held just a bit more tightly, whereas Hanoi is somewhat more stolid.
I met Americans working in both Danang and Hanoi who were really enthusiastic for the future there. That things could only getbetter.
Were I a young guy and single, heck, I’d go.
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