Posted on 02/27/2017 10:00:46 PM PST by nickcarraway
The $64,000 question for Democrats seeking to fight back against Donald Trump and a Republican Congress between now and the 2020 elections is whether their recent problems in turning out their voters, especially in nonpresidential contests, can be changed by the energy of a burgeoning anti-Trump resistance.
The first real answer to that question may have occurred this weekend in a special state-senate election in the “First State,” Delaware. And though it would be unwise to assume it to set a reliable pattern, in this one case Democrats passed the test.
The contest was over a seat in a state-senate chamber that was otherwise tied 10–10. It was vacated by Democrat Bethany Hall-Long, who was elected Lieutenant Governor of Delaware last November. Republicans ran as their candidate John Merino, who lost the district by just two points in 2014. Given the exceptionally low turnout typically drawn by special elections, the GOP had every reason to expect a win and thus control of the Delaware Senate for the first time since 1972.
But instead Democrat Stephanie Hansen won the seat by a landslide 58–42 margin. Not coincidentally, over a third of registered voters in the district turned out, which is very good for a special election in midwinter (the weather on Election Day was unseasonably mild, but also included an unseasonably disruptive thunderstorm).
The Hansen campaign represented a good combination of national assistance and locally driven messaging. The Democrat raised over twice as much money as her GOP opponent, much of it from small contributors around the country, and also benefited from significant independent expenditures. Local volunteers also had a lot of out-of-state help. But local factors mattered too, as Paul Blumenthal noted:
While the race brought in huge numbers of outside volunteers, it was mostly fought over local issues like transit, the environment, education and the state budget. Erik Schramm, Hansen’s campaign manager, said the campaign had to juggle messaging to highlight local issues while harnessing the national mood to excite volunteers.
Democrats will try to replicate their Delaware success in upcoming special elections for congressional seats — especially on April 18 in Georgia’s 6th District, vacated by HHS Secretary Tom Price, where Democratic newcomer Jon Ossoff has already raised nearly $2 million to compete in a huge field dominated by warring Republicans — and in the regular off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia. Winning obviously matters most to Democrats, but the thing to watch in terms of future trends is turnout. If turnout is up significantly over past nonpresidential elections, Democratic odds of winning back the House and a goodly number of governorships and state legislative chambers in 2018 will go up accordingly, particularly if Donald Trump continues to tread water — or even sink further — in popularity.
yeah but a democrat won- that’s significant lol
They are idiots. Good grief. Talk about trying to find a hammer and sickle in a haystack.
The MSM will attempt to wear down support for Trump through prolonged, extreme negativity. Recall how it worked against Dubya.
Unlike Dubya, Trump is fighting and so must we — indefinitely. The MSM is our greatest threat. Avoid patronizing the parent companies: Disney, Comcast, Time Warner.
I lived there 3 years. I second the “it’s Delaware” utterance. The only advantage to living there was I got a head start on disliking former VP Biden.
No, its not.
2020 will be another close race coming down to the same states as 2016, MI, PA, WI, OH, FL, NC, NV, NH.
Trump will again lose the popular vote and will have to pull of the MI, PA, I hat trick as well as hold NC, FL and OH if he is to be re-elected.
A democrat in the state senate left their slot and it was won by another democrat...
How can anyone describe this as an “electoral comeback”?
(more fake news)
ROTFLMAO
“.... the GOP had every reason to expect a win and thus control of the Delaware Senate for the first time since 1972.”
More fake news....
>> No, it’s not
To say the MSM will not wear down support for Trump?
Remember when the "witch" lost to Chris Coons in 2010 57% to 40%?
Effin great.
I didn’t find out about this until last Friday and by then It Was Too Late!
WTF RNC, GOP, GOP?
So Democrats are worried about states that locks for their party and winning in them shows they’re going to win in 2020?
Wow, if we can’t hold Delaware, it’s over.
Only if Republicans resist Trump and don’t deliver.
Bingo. It worked with W because he never fought back...
The Dems bought the race. Over a million bucks to hold a paltry state legislative seat that was already theirs, and dispatched countless Dems to the district. That they had to throw everything but the kitchen sink to hold this in Democrat Delaware shows they’re far from ready for prime time.
Hopefully by then the economy will be humming along, vote fraud will be much harder, and many dem voters will have been deported.
Holy crap, if some junior high kid in Dubuque, Iowa leaves his history book open to a picture of Woodrow Wilson, these guys would claim it’s an omen the Dems are in the road back to dominance. Talk about desperation. Sheesh! [eyeroll]
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