The emergency spillway for that dam is a few hundred yards to the northwest of the dam, over solid earth. Water over the spillway cannot cause the dam to fail.
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The dam is not failing. The emergency spillway is failing. It says that pretty clear in the title.
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The base of the dam is earth/rock embankment.
If the spillway fails, the dam likely fails.
It retains sufficient water to inundate the densely populated portion of the Sacramento Valley.
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Look at it with Google Earth...shows the problem. IF the spillway gets breeched the dam is useless. ALL the water will go around the dam through the failed spillway. The dam will be there holding back nothing but air.
The dam is from key to key-or, where the dam is cut into the side of the hills. Any part of that breaches then the dams failed.
Doesnt matter how much of the dam remains, it failed if breached at any point of above.
We have three more dry days, then 8 more days of rain. Real disaster, but not to worry we will protect the illegal felons.