There’s 10 up for reelection in states that went for Trump.
The filibuster may not be an option?
If the confirmation hearings go well, and IF the public likes the nominee, and IF McConnell can work his magic, it may be that enough Dems - regardless of their ideology - will vote YES on cloture and NO on confirmation. Still gets us what we want while preserving the filibuster.
This is an entirely possible scenario - and the one that most GOP senators want.