Someone suggested that on day 1 Trump’s people should reject the use of the current unemployment statistic in favor of the U-6 number, which includes those no longer on the rolls, or no longer looking for work, as they put it. That number is currently 9.3%. Refuse to entertain any discussion of any other number. Because THAT number is comin’ down.
If we had kept the new jobs growth on the prior forty year average starting in 2001, we would now have 45 million more jobs in the U.S. than we currently do.
For that reason, I consider that 45 million a base line of unemployment.
Whatever the number we have employed, add that to it, and then divide 45 million by that result.
My take is that we have in the ball park of 25% unemployment.
Perhaps I should explain why I stick to that.
We have 365,000 U.S. Citizens reach the age of 21 each month. To keep full employment, that is the number of new jobs we have to create each month.
We are creating around 100 to 160 thousand jobs per month.
Each month, that 45 million figure gets bigger.
It is fair to ask, how many retire each month, or drop off the active working rolls. I suspect it’s a lot less than 365,000 due to deaths.
I don’t have that answer and don’t have time to look it up right now.
That 365,000 figure would be impacted significantly, so I should have lowered it. Since I don’t have the drop out figure at 65 or so, I left it and you can contemplate or do some research on your own.
Thanks.
(the 65 drop out rate dawned on me about midway through the response - I included it in the interest of accuracy)