Well, hopefully we win the NM elections in 2018 and 2020. Need to hold the Governorship (John Sanchez?) take back the House and get that pesky Senate for the first time since ??? (Our campaigns only has the Senate results as far back as ‘96)
Given NM likes to flip back and forth, I’d give Dems a slim edge at reclaiming the Governorship in ‘18. Sanchez ran before in 2002 and fared poorly and he hasn’t left much of a mark as Lt Governor. This isn’t unusual because Lt. Governor is such a dead-end job that only ONE occupant, Ezequiel Cabeza De Baca, has ever won the Governorship while holding the #2 job, and that was in 1916 (some have succeeded to the office, but never elected in their own right).
So Sanchez starts off with that strike against him. Also, the Albuquerque Mayor R.J. Berry might also run in the GOP primary (although preferable to any Dem, Berry hasn’t been a rousing success in his job). Berry’s 2nd term is up next year, and I don’t know if he’s decided to run for a 3rd term. A big primary between the two of them could get ugly and harmful. The 800-lb gorilla, however, is neither Berry or Sanchez, but Congressman Steve Pearce. Pearce ran for Senator and lost. He has to weigh whether it’s better to stay in a safe seat assuring he gets to direct all federal GOP patronage and power or to make a risky run for Governor.
Conversely, the Dems may have a battle royale between the Attorney General Balderas and Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Grisham (and a few others may run, including the Santa Fe Mayor Javier Gonzales and the son of ex-Gov. Jerry Apodaca). The 800-lb. gorilla was Sen. Tom Udall, but he appears to be passing on running (ditto Sen. Heinrich). If the candidates go nuclear, that would benefit the GOP nominee.
I’m not sure the last time the GOP won the State Senate at a regular election, though via a party switch in the mid ‘80s, they were able to either tie or gain a narrow majority, but it went back to the Dems in 1988, I believe.