Both Toomey and Ron Johnson were able to run just about as well as Romney in high-income areas while doing much better than Romney in blue-collar and rural areas (albeit not nearly as well as Trump ran there), thus allowing them to outoerform Trump statewide. The trick for Republicans nationwide need to harness enough of Trump’s populism to do well in blue-collar and rural areas (although it might be difficult to replicate Trump’s success; it truly was a historic performance for him) without going so far down the populist path so that it impedes them from retaining traditional GOP margins among economically conservative voters. Both Johnson and Toomey threaded the needle pretty well, but we need candidates in 2018 and beyond to do even better because demographics are not moving in our favor.
Ladies and germs, the Kos Kreeps are finally done with the final state, NC. The only GOP seat to see a noteworthy decline was the 2nd district, where George Holding crushed Kevin McCarthy’s mistress Renee Elmers in the primary after re-redistricting (so thanks for that stupid lib courts!!!!), it has rich suburbs surely. Trump lost 3 points there, though Hillary gained none. Holding got over 56%, matching Romney’s 2012 vote share.
Wish we could do better in RINO Walter Jones’ district which went 60.5% Trump.
Though I was certain there would be no split districts in NC, I waited till now to provide this analysis.
241+ districts elected a Republican to Congress, of which 241 took office since the GOP refuses to use their powers to challenge elections like the rats did with that Indiana seat in 1984.
Of those 241 districts, Shillery carried 23
CA-10/21/25/39/45/48/49 (7 GOP districts in the state to Trump’s 5, FU Cali)
TX-7/23/32
PA-6/7
FL-26/27
WA-8, AZ-2, CO-6, KS-3, MN-3, IL-6, VA-10, NJ-7, NY-24
Trump meanwhile carried 12 districts won or “won” by rats
MN-1/7/8
NV-3 (rat gain), AZ-1, IA-2, IL-17, WI-3, PA-17, NJ 5 (rat gain probably our #1 target for 2018), NY-18, NH-1 (rat gain, this is a very slutty acey ducey district that keeps getting back together with Che-Porter)
23 - 12 -= 11, 241 - 11 = 230 districts carried by Trump
MN (4 of 9!), AZ, IL, PA, NY, and NJ saw split districts on both sides.
That rats managed to gain or “gain” 3 seats that Trump carried and that we failed to gain any of the previously rat held seats carried by Trump other than NE-2 and FL-18 (and FL-2 which was certain due to redistricting), is one of the little specs of brown (not chocolate) in a mostly delicious election. That we easily held most of the previously GOP districts that went to Shillery was in contrast, very good, putting us at +11 net.
Now then, I forgot how Romney would have fared if we used the congressional district method in all states.
But lets look at how Trump would have done, he carried 230 districts, plus 30 states ie 60 evs, that’s 290-245. Exactly what he would have gotten had he failed to narrowly win Michigan.
If we use of Auh2’s method of giving 1 electoral vote to the statewide winner and 1 to the winner of the most districts in the state (with statewide as tiebreaker) that would have gained Trump 1 additional vote each from MN (5-3) and VA (6-5) which were carried by Shillery.
292-243
While this distastefully would have gotten Shillery 14 votes closer to winning it would have substantially lowered her chances of getting to 270. Under AuhO’s modified system Trump could have narrowly lost MI, WI, and PA statewide (which in the real world would have given Shillery 278) and lost only 3 votes, still winning with 289 and plenty of room to spare. Lose FL? Still wins at 288! Lose Diaz-Balart’s district in FL? That gives Hillary more districts in the state (GD district map) and thus 2 more votes. But Trump still wins with 286, matching Bush in 2004!
Based on these election results Shillery would have had little chance under this system.