Posted on 11/11/2016 5:26:45 PM PST by Hojczyk
Like many people around the world, I expected a comfortable Hillary Clinton victory on Tuesday. But I’m not a random pundit when it comes to understanding presidential races and the electorate — I managed one Obama presidential campaign and oversaw another from the White House. So of all the forecasts that got it wrong, my prediction that Mrs. Clinton was a 100 percent favorite was a glaring miss.
My confidence was not partisan spin. It was based on public data, voting history and some sense of the Clinton campaign’s own models. I played with various state scenarios, and even in the most generous outcomes, could not get Donald J. Trump to 270 electoral votes.
But he ended up winning 306 electoral votes and, most important, did it by breaking into the Upper Midwest, leaving the blue Big Ten firewall in ruins.
What happened? We will know much more when all the data is in and we can see exactly who voted. But based on what we know, it was a combination of several factors that led to this stunning upset.
STRONG AND WEAK CURRENTS BEAT DATA AND ANALYTICS The models for both support (vote share) and turnout were off significantly. It appears that there really were hidden Trump voters, meaning his ceiling of support was higher than most of us believed possible based on polling and modeling survey responses. And millions of potential Clinton voters who the models suggested would vote stayed home.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Not a bad article for this paper
It was partisan spin.
If THIS data was wrong, what about the data that says Obozo is at his highest approval levels of his presidency - aren’t those the same pollsters?
david poof cya piece.
Yeah... wouldn’t it be great if future ballots all had plebiscites rating the President too. We’d see numbers that would be easier to believe.
The only thing this idiot got wrong in the polling was he bought into the plan to manufacture the polling data to show a Killery win with the understanding that the vote padding program would adjust the vote totals to the poll numbers.
...David Plouffe: What I Got Wrong About the Election...
Save time. The condensed version of the article is:
“Everything.”
He blames Comey too much and doesn’t give Clinton’s email nearly enough credit.
That drip, drip, drip of Wikileaks was relentless.
But other than that, about as honest as you would get from a democrat insider.
“You trusted us. You f@$/ed up”- Tim Matheson, in Animal House.
“JAMES COMEY From the last debate until Election Day, the dominant news was the F.B.I. and Mrs. Clinton’s emails along with a drumbeat of daily WikiLeaks dumps. “
Which the media avoided with great care.
I am not a journalist, but I could see a Trump win. Is he stupid>?
You need only one word, dumb ass: EVERYTHING.
Re : “. . .meaning his ceiling of support was higher than most of us believed possible based on polling and modeling survey responses.”
Especially when the pollsters contacted twice as many democrat voters over republican.
12 universities in 9 states. Trump carried 7 of the 9 states.
They all missed the movement that had its roots in the tea party. Instead of taking seriously the midterm routings of 2010 and 2014, they bury their heads in the sand, happy with the fact that they have retained the presidency. Meanwhile, the inner core of their constituency was rotting away as middle-class workers began to look to another. Donald Trump saw the trend and took those issues concerning immigration, trade and a strong defense and combine those with his outsider status, as well as the Fed up attitude toward corruption, and created a narrative that reflected The will of the majority.
I lied to you about everything.
The conferences between the DNC the MSM heads and the Pollsters resulted in weaponized polls and a carefully managed message day in and out.\
++++++
Always worked in the past.
What they didn’t count on was Eddie01. Stealth. Would not answer the pollsters call. Trump rally attendee getting out the vote with my democrat family who finally realized the younger brother and son had America’s best interest in heart.
About 10 years ago my dad asked me what he did wrong. LOL.
My love for freedom, liberty and the Constitution finally broke the spell this election cycle.
How about - they were not in tune with Americans? They needed to pay attention to who was at those rallies and the enthusiasm. But, first they needed to walk outside of the bubble they put themselves in. They must have actually believed their own photoshopped pics of fake crowds at the Clinton rallies. They are complete idiots.
“It appears that there really were hidden Trump voters...”
LOL! Just wow. Clueless, brainwashed/highly educated useful idiots. So much more is hidden by their own self-applied blinders, by their echo chamber. They are just beginning to see reality...
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