Trump within 4 of 270 on RCP no Tossup Map

Real Clear Politics ^ | // | Real Clear Politics

[wise_caucasian]

RCP now has Trump leading FL and at 266 electoral votes with no tossups. Only trailing NH by 0.6 but that includes the phone WMUR poll with Clinton +11. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

[JediJones]

I say we illuminate it and then we eliminate it.

Trump doesn’t need any temptation to pass Democrat-written bills. We need to keep Repubs in majority. We’ve got less issues to hold them in check on than the Dims.

[TornadoAlley3]

We will never see another true outsider run for president again.

[MMaschin]

Yep. They had to put out that bogus New Hampshire poll, to keep it blue.

Trump is ahead in early voting in Colorado. Remember, since 2013 a law was passed requiring all registered voters receive a ballot in the mail, and so far around 1.8M voters have returned them, and there have been 7k more R's than D's returned. Trump picks up a bit more in crossovers, and the last poll I saw, was +8 with independents - there were around 550k unaffiliated ballots returned. So if the polling was correct, then Trump should have around a 50k vote lead.

In 2012 there was around 2.4M voters in Colorado, so if total turnout is around the same number as 2012, 75% of the voters have voted.

So, assuming the total turnout will be about the same, there are about 600k more voters, and Trump is ahead by 50k!

[pepsi_junkie]

269-269 is a possibility Wouldn’t that be fun, Dem heads would explode!

Then it goes to the GOP controlled house where I wouldn't put it past Paul Ryan to swing it to Hillary.

[LS]

Yet another poll has Trump +2 in PA, Auto Alliance.

So that’s 2 +2, 2 ties, 1 +1 Cankles, and an outlier of +11 Cankles. Based on this, if RCP was honest, they’d move PA into Trump’s column.

[MMaschin]

What! You forgot to put Texas on you list of Hillary states!!

You are clueless! Trump has pretty much won NC, and is position to win FL and CO! Add the Romney states, and Ohio (which you graciously conceded), and Trump WINS.

[dirtboy]

And add NM to that as well.

[knarf]

YOU'RE THE JUDGE

YOU'RE THE JURY

DO YOUR DUTY

CONVICT HILLARY

[SpeedyInTexas]

I like the WOW counties in Wisconsin!

[Enlightened1]

Rest assured Trump is way ahead of Hillary.

It’s just like the rallies.

If Hilkary wins, then it was stolen.

[Gator113]

Thank LS. I too think the fireworks cancelation is telling.

[BeadCounter]

I’ll say it again,

In ‘08 especially, a lot of folks, white folks voted for Obama, probably in places like Wisconsin; they wanted to vote for the cool dude as they perceived him, for the black man.

Hillary is not going to get those kinds of votes.

I have seen a fair number of Obama stickers and signs from ‘08 and ‘12; there’s nothing out there for Hillary, I saw surely, a lot more for Bernie in the primary campaign.

[Kay]

Impressive map.

[BeadCounter]

Va., Wisc, Mich, Pa., NM or Colo., One of those states will flip.

[ought-six]

“It’s time to take out the trash! I’m voting FOR Trump, and AGAINST all democrats, RINO’s, progressives, educrats, and members of the media...corrupted souls, one and all.”

Me, too.

[MMaschin]

I'm comfortable with the RCP average map, except I'm not positive about Nevada, and I think he's got a nice lead in Colorado.

Colorado mails out ballots to all registered votes, and so far, assuming total turnout is similar to 2012, 75% of the vote is in. And of those returned ballots, 7000+ more of them are Republican. There are also 550k unaffiliated ballots returned, and recent polling had Trump winning +8% of those, so that's another 44k. So, with 75% of the votes in, Trump should have around a 50k vote lead.

The total turnout in CO, in 2012 was around 2.4M, so there should be around 600k more votes, and Trump is up 50k. That's a pretty good lead!

My map reflects the possibility of Trump losing Nevada, but winning Colorado.

My map

It sounds crazy, but look at the map, it's really not, it creates a tie! So, it's important that we hold the Senate, because the Senate would choose the VP.

What would be crazy, would be if this panned out, and Trump lost ME-CD2. He would have 268, to Clintons 270 - BUT there is the elector in WA, who has said he will not vote for Clinton! If he was able to go into hiding, and live long enough to not vote for Clinton, then no one would reach the 270 majority, and it would go to Congress. I don't like thinking about that, I really don't think the guy would be able to hold out, with the entire election on his head. Good thing Trump is polling comfortably ahead in ME-CD2!

[RKBA Democrat]

Its not a lost cause. Its an absolute toss up. Those words from the chair of the RPV and he was citing both public polls and the internals.

[RKBA Democrat]

Amen.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Minor point, but today’s Bloomberg poll has Clinton +3 yet for the Generic Congressional Ballot Bloomberg has REP +3.

Today’s fox poll has Clinton +4, yet for the Generic Congressional Ballot Fox has REP +1.

That doesn’t make sense.

Polling is very weird this year.

[ought-six]

Fox is no different from CBS, ABC, NBC, etc. The majority of its on-air “personalities” are lefties.