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White House Watch: Tied Again, But …
Rasmussen reports ^ | 11/4/16

Posted on 11/04/2016 5:34:28 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper

..... presidential contest is tied again in the White House Watch survey, but Republican Donald Trump is holding on to his 10-point lead among those who’ve already made up their minds about how they will vote.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton each with 44% support among Likely U.S. Voters. Libertarian Gary Johnson gets four percent (4%) of the vote, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at one percent


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; rasmussen; vote
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To: sargon

No. it’s a “rolling three day average”. Otherwise known as a three day tracking poll. Yesterday’s sample would have had to be so positive to knock out the 3 point lead. Read the methodology for further details.


61 posted on 11/04/2016 7:05:43 AM PDT by Nicojones
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To: All

We have to get the vote out to overcome the massive voter fraud...

I believe it will be done....


62 posted on 11/04/2016 7:07:58 AM PDT by JBW1949 (I'm really PC....PATRIOTICALLY CORRECT!!!!)
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To: SoFloFreeper

If these polls are being manipulated to help out Hillary as much as they can, then it is no surprise this poll is tied or that Trump “lost” ground heading into this weekend. I guess we’ll find out soon enough whether we have been misled by the polls or whether we have been deceiving ourselves on the strength of Trump (or weakness of Hillary).


63 posted on 11/04/2016 7:11:52 AM PDT by CatOwner
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To: johncocktoasten

“So how in the hell is it a tie?”

Because they’re lying to you.


64 posted on 11/04/2016 7:12:38 AM PDT by Personal Responsibility (We need a separation of press and state!)
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To: af_vet_1981

Amen!


65 posted on 11/04/2016 7:21:38 AM PDT by mandaladon (It's always good to be underestimated. ~Donald Trump)
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To: SoFloFreeper

I thought for sure that she’d tank big time after last Friday’s FBI news. But I guessed wrong.

Apparently it will only take an indictment or arrest for the media to actually report the truth about this criminal family. It’s basically been whitewashed and scrubbed from most major news outlets.


66 posted on 11/04/2016 7:36:41 AM PDT by nhwingut (Trump-Pence 2016 - Blow Up The GOPe)
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To: SoFloFreeper

We are past the time when polls were a snapshot of the “horse race” or a barometer on public opinion. They are now a campaign tactic and you have to follow the money.


67 posted on 11/04/2016 7:56:37 AM PDT by Scott from the Left Coast (When you are going through Hell, keep going. #FreeJulian)
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To: Nicojones
A 3 point swing in one night? How reliable is this poll?

That 3 points is within the margin of error.

Unless and until every registered voter in the country is polled, then there will always be a margin of error. It's just a fact of statistical probability and another reason why placing so much importance on polling is foolish.

68 posted on 11/04/2016 8:21:23 AM PDT by BfloGuy ( Even the opponents of Socialism are dominated by socialist ideas.)
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To: All

1) Dems do outnumber R’s in registration nationally. A D+x (some number) is not oversampling. The value of x is debatable but it is not zero. 2012’s turnout was D+about 6. A pollster who uses it may be wrong because she won’t perform as well as Obama, but it’s a reasonable thing to use.

2) 3% shift in one day means the sample picked up a lot of Clinton voters or lost a lot of Trump voters on one particular night. Maybe it appeared or Trump’s good night rolled off.

3) If it’s the former . . . a good night for Clinton, it will roll off by Tuesday, when a rather better poll is taken.

4) The Friday announcement of last week, recall, DIDN’T SAY ALL THAT MUCH. More evidence found to examine. Not “WE’RE INDICTING”. It would not move many votes, and remember a LOT of votes have already been cast. That announcement absolutely wasn’t enough to have people in the few states that allow a revote to bother changing.


69 posted on 11/04/2016 8:25:56 AM PDT by Owen
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To: Nicojones

No it cannot change the result because that’s a much smaller slice of the electorate. Those who have made up their minds is very high. Forgotten the exact number but 80 percent I think. So a 10 percent spread for Trump with the supermajority who have made of their mind greatly outweighs an 11 percent spread for Hillary in the 20 percent (or whatever it is) who have not made up their minds.


70 posted on 11/04/2016 8:26:10 AM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: johncocktoasten

>>Trump= (.86*.53)+(.14*.3)= 49.78%
Clinton= (.86*.43)+(.14*.41)= 42.72%

So how in the hell is it a tie?<<

I agree. The two results are incompatible. The only explanation I can come up with is that they’re not weighting the result where 53% are breaking for Trump, but they are weighting the result overall (by assuming that more Dems will vote than they’re getting in their sample.)

Otherwise, Trump’s 53% of the 86% who’ve made up their minds puts him at 46% overall without even considering his share of the Undecideds.

Anyway, that 10% difference should be scaring the hell out of Hillary and her supporters. It’s a huge number to overcome, even with the benefit of fraud.


71 posted on 11/04/2016 8:34:08 AM PDT by Norseman (Defund the Left....completely!)
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To: wright2bear

“Most pollsters are moving their polls towards being tied up or close to it. They think this will save their credibility come election no matter who wins”

Agreed. And if Trump wins which I think he’ll do the pollsters will just say there was a late last minute Trump surge that they couldn’t account for in their final surveys, that the undecideds broke big for him.


72 posted on 11/04/2016 8:35:38 AM PDT by ScottfromNJ
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To: SoFloFreeper
Hey Bernie supporters. Be true to yourself and write in Bernie. . . or if you want a future and want to see America Great Again, Vote for Trump!
73 posted on 11/04/2016 8:36:10 AM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only Hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: Nicojones

>>A 3 point swing in one night? How reliable is this poll?<<

I could see it if the poll was taken the day after the 7th World Series game. Hillary ran two commercials that appeared quite effective against Trump, one on his women problem and another on the supposed nuclear threat.

40 million people were tuned in, so I’d have been surprised to see Trump hold his own after those commercials ran.

I’d expect things to even out in a day or so though.


74 posted on 11/04/2016 8:42:13 AM PDT by Norseman (Defund the Left....completely!)
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To: All
Any data out there on how all those Bernie primary voters are going to vote? I remember when Bernie beat her in NH by 60.4 to 38. I thought the enthusiasm and momo for Bernie was going to be unstoppable. Now we know what happened at the DNC and the fact it was in the bag for Hillary from day one.

Anyway, wonder what all the Bernie people nationwide are going to do?

75 posted on 11/04/2016 8:46:22 AM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only Hope for Western Civilization.)
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