This poll is no less reliable than the junk being put fort by the media.
I live in Bucks county one of the so called 17 critical counties in the US. we went for Obama by 1.2 % in 2012.
No way is the county going for Obama by the same rate. The approximate Trump to Hillary signage is around 4 to 1. Pretty constant across the county, in 2012 Obama was equal to Romney, he might have even had an edge in signs. I would expect the county to go for Trump by around 3% or more.
Wilkes-Barre Scranton went democratic in 2012 and 2008, Polling in those counties show a strong Trump support and folks I know up there saying the are going republican this year.
No one knows. The polls seem to be odd, as they are consistently undercounting blue collar, non college educated whites. Might be due to the response rate or it might be that these families are working 2 jobs and so are not home to answer polls, I do not know. But how to estimate that bias significance or the reduction in black vote?
PA went for Obama by 5.3 % in 2012,which was 310,000 votes. registration changes since 2012 give the republicans an adder of 232,000 voters, if black participation drops by 12 % (as it has in early voting in NC), that is another 80,000 votes lost to the Dems.
PA is in reach of Trump, but no one will know until Nov 8th.
I think it is equally big news that Iowa, which went democratic in 5 out of the last 6 presidential elections is looking like a solid Trump win this time. Anything could happen.