I live in Bucks county one of the so called 17 critical counties in the US. we went for Obama by 1.2 % in 2012.
No way is the county going for Obama by the same rate. The approximate Trump to Hillary signage is around 4 to 1. Pretty constant across the county, in 2012 Obama was equal to Romney, he might have even had an edge in signs. I would expect the county to go for Trump by around 3% or more.
Wilkes-Barre Scranton went democratic in 2012 and 2008, Polling in those counties show a strong Trump support and folks I know up there saying the are going republican this year.
No one knows. The polls seem to be odd, as they are consistently undercounting blue collar, non college educated whites. Might be due to the response rate or it might be that these families are working 2 jobs and so are not home to answer polls, I do not know. But how to estimate that bias significance or the reduction in black vote?
PA went for Obama by 5.3 % in 2012,which was 310,000 votes. registration changes since 2012 give the republicans an adder of 232,000 voters, if black participation drops by 12 % (as it has in early voting in NC), that is another 80,000 votes lost to the Dems.
PA is in reach of Trump, but no one will know until Nov 8th.
I think it is equally big news that Iowa, which went democratic in 5 out of the last 6 presidential elections is looking like a solid Trump win this time. Anything could happen.
I am from Manhattan and staying in Bucks County for 3 weeks. I’m volunteering full-time out of the Newtown office, doing a lot of door knocking, phones, and rally help. I worked in Holland, Feasterville, and a lot of Levittown.
The houses are targeted so I usually get enthusiastic Trump support when I actually reach someone at home, which may be 20% of the time. I don’t take that as an indicator since they are targeted, but I do talk to them about their family and friends. Most of them show very broad Trump support.
While there are few political lawn signs, Trump beats Hillary in signs 10 to 1. One supporter said last election her street was filled with Obama signs, but there are no Hillary signs this time.