Posted on 11/02/2016 5:10:11 AM PDT by Kaslin
We are told that election polls these days are highly scientific. Therefore, to suggest that they could be off by more than the statistical margin of error is just wishful thinking.
Most of the polls have said all along that Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election with ease. However, the recent announcement by FBI Director James Comey that the investigation into Clintons email is being reopened raises the possibility that support for Clinton could erode. It will be interesting to see if polls conducted after Comeys announcement show Trump pulling ahead or merely predict that Clinton will win by a narrower margin.
Here are six key reasons why you shouldnt trust the polls, particularly at this critical moment in history:
The polling industry today is in crisis -- Though polls accurately predicted several recent U.S. elections, the industry has serious problems. As Nate Silver (who engages in the dubious practice of handicapping elections as well as sporting events) admits:
The polls have managed to produce high-quality output (pretty good forecasts of election outcomes) with worse and worse input (fewer and fewer people responding to them). Its something of a paradox.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
Trump by four. I wanna get it here on this thread a week out. We’ll see how well my “dartboard” approach comports with the final result and if I can do a better job predicting than the polls.
Reliable polls are a thing of the past.
Every one has their agenda.
I bet none of them really match demographics in a way considered ideal.
That will become even more clear after the election next week.
1 - One reason to trust the polls. Everyone said the same thing about oversampling, being fixed, landlines, rally attendance, etc in 2008 & 2012
And in 2012 the RCP average of polls had them off by 2.6%. That is actually huge considering that is a poll of polls and the margin of error for each is reduced as they are totaled. So yeah, 2012 is a good reason to not trust polls. And it has gotten worse since.
That was an impressive analysis.
I always like to learn something from FR, and I just did. Thank you.
And let’s remember that polls had Hillary beating Bernie in Michigan - when it was put to the test, the result was a surprise for both Hillary and those of us who believed whatever the polls tell us. The polls often tell us exactly what the pollsters want them to. Can’t help but wonder if the polls “tightening” is a complete lie. My guess is that the polls were never as pro-Hillary as the pollsters told us they were and now that the election is just around the corner, they are trying to save face. By next Wednesday, we will be talking about President Trump!
“They are not highly scientific. They pretend to predict outcome, based on faulty premises. The parties live and die by the polls - this makes the polls more important than they really are.”
They ( polls) give them something to talk about other than the issues
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.