Posted on 10/28/2016 7:08:57 AM PDT by RoosterRedux
We still might be deluding ourselves. In 2012, I was pretty sure we were, this time? Its Trump, not Romney, and things are different for sure.
phoney polls slowly being brought into line so they can claim some legitimacy for the next election
Well, on TV this morning they trotted out liberal icons Gabby Giffords and Mark Brady, titular leaders of the Brady Bunch for Gun Control.
What a pair to draw to....!
Leni
Forgot about that one. That one actually tipped the election.
Just curious. Was the oversampling the same in each of these polls or does that change daily? Hillary can not break 42% in a 4 way race. Just won’t happen. Maybe 44% Nationally due to the fraud.
Hillary told ABC little Georgi Stephasspoulus to tighten up their poll in the hope it will get her flying monkeys to vote.
Those tapes were given to the Times and they are a big “Meh”. The Times has been writing stories on those tapes all week.
You are correct we might be deluding ourselves, but here are some reasons that it is not likely:
1) since WWII the pattern is the party in power holds the white house for 8 years. This pattern has only been broken twice, in 1980 when the economy was very bad, and the party in power lost after 4 years, and 1988 when the party in power held onto power for a third term when the economy was really dong well. Since WWII the pattern has been:
Democrat, 2 terms (Truman)
Republican 2 terms (Eisenhower)
Democrat 2 terms (Kennedy/Johnson)
Republican 2 terms (Nixon/ford)
Democrat 1 term (Carter)
Republican 3 terms (Reagan/Bush)
Democrat 2 terms (Clinton)
Republican 2 terms (Bush)
Democrat 2 terms (Obama)
With a bad economy, bad foreign policy outcomes, bad federal corruption the long term trend is we should a republican in office.
2) Primary enthusiasm model:
This model showed it was the Primary excitement which matters and predictably will show the winner and based on that model Trump wins by with around 290 to 300 electoral votes.
3) State by state polls, once dissected.
The polls we are told about over sample democrats and college graduates, missing a lot of Trumps appeal to the white working class folks, who are way underrepresented in the poll data. Just like 1980 where it was the Reagan democrats that put him over the top. Also despite the declarations that Hillary gets more democratic support than Trump gets republican support, numerous polls of the key battleground states indicate Hillary is not getting the share of black votes Obama go in 2012, either in percentage of black voters of total number of blacks coming out to vote.
Not saying trump wins, but if he does there will have been more than adequate evidence to indicate why and how he achieves such a victory.
“Trump knows how to close a sale.”
True, but I don’t think that is what is happening with the polls.
I think the pollsters and pundits are shifting their alliegence from Hillary to their own self interest in the final weeks of the campaign.
Throughout most of the campaign, they can use the polls, and their talking heads to create the psychological meme of a foregone conclusion for the democrat. This is done both to suppress Trump votes by making his supporters feel hopeless, and by signaling to “sports fan voters” who like to go with the winning team, that Trump is not the winner.
This technique has been used successfully to create a self fulfilling prophecy, and even if it does not succeed, and the republican wins, the media has not sacrificed credibility, since they can’t be reasonably expected to predict outcomes months in to the future, and won’t be held accountable for being wrong.
However, if this is indeed what is happening (the media has been pushing a narrative of foregone conclusion), then what they would naturally do in the final weeks, is abruptly abandon that strategy, and begin to publish honest predictions of what they truly believe will happen.
It wouldn’t happen over night, because there is a bandwagon effect, when one pollster jumps ship, the others realize it is happening, there is s chain reaction over a period of days.
I think this is what we are seeing - at least I hope so - indications that Trump has been doing well all along, and the leftist media is finally being forced to report it.
Trump has run an amazing campaign from the beginning. His instincts to fight back, to earn the reputation of being a politically incorrect unvarnished truth teller, to push back hard against the media, to brand the system as rigged, etc. - all flawless.
Most of all, his instict to run as an unapologetic conservative openly pro Christian, pro life, pro guns, pro military, pro business, America first. I don’t think anyone really thought that could ever work again with today’s demographics, but Trump is proving it can.
I’m not taking anything away from his ability to close the deal either, he is doing everything right.
BUT....
I don’t think the surge in the polls is his doing, it is just the pollsters and media throwing in the towell - like rats scurrying off the ship just before it sinks.
“ABC/Washington Post Poll: Trump Regaining Lost Momentum”
It was always an enemedia fiction that trump was behind by double-digits; they’re just shifting their fake poll results before the election so they won’t look so grotesquely wrong. Many on FR predicted weeks ago that this shift would happen.
Yep, people like to vote for the eventual winner so they faked the poll lead for Hillary so early voters would vote for her.
There it is. Lost momentum. Trump needs to cut his loses and step down.
This was predicted several times - a couple of weeks before the election, the “polls” would find Trump “gaining”. Otherwise they’ll all look like the lying pos proganda tools that we all know they are.
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