We still might be deluding ourselves. In 2012, I was pretty sure we were, this time? Its Trump, not Romney, and things are different for sure.
You are correct we might be deluding ourselves, but here are some reasons that it is not likely:
1) since WWII the pattern is the party in power holds the white house for 8 years. This pattern has only been broken twice, in 1980 when the economy was very bad, and the party in power lost after 4 years, and 1988 when the party in power held onto power for a third term when the economy was really dong well. Since WWII the pattern has been:
Democrat, 2 terms (Truman)
Republican 2 terms (Eisenhower)
Democrat 2 terms (Kennedy/Johnson)
Republican 2 terms (Nixon/ford)
Democrat 1 term (Carter)
Republican 3 terms (Reagan/Bush)
Democrat 2 terms (Clinton)
Republican 2 terms (Bush)
Democrat 2 terms (Obama)
With a bad economy, bad foreign policy outcomes, bad federal corruption the long term trend is we should a republican in office.
2) Primary enthusiasm model:
This model showed it was the Primary excitement which matters and predictably will show the winner and based on that model Trump wins by with around 290 to 300 electoral votes.
3) State by state polls, once dissected.
The polls we are told about over sample democrats and college graduates, missing a lot of Trumps appeal to the white working class folks, who are way underrepresented in the poll data. Just like 1980 where it was the Reagan democrats that put him over the top. Also despite the declarations that Hillary gets more democratic support than Trump gets republican support, numerous polls of the key battleground states indicate Hillary is not getting the share of black votes Obama go in 2012, either in percentage of black voters of total number of blacks coming out to vote.
Not saying trump wins, but if he does there will have been more than adequate evidence to indicate why and how he achieves such a victory.