Posted on 10/27/2016 6:39:45 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
AP is playing fast and loose with Simpson’s paradox. While mail-ins have favored Democratic, these came at the expense of early voting and then some. Democratic early voting has fallen off a cliff.
A R overall lead in total early voting after polls have been open for several days when Democrats led by 168K in Florida is a disaster for Hillary.
Democrats trending down in in-person votes. They were at 49% of in-person early votes in 2012 I believe. I call FL for Trump.
FL in-person early votes, cumulative day 1:
Democrats - 133K/45.7%, Republicans - 109K/37.4%, Other - 49K/16.8%
FL in-person early votes, cumulative day 2:
Democrats - 257K/43.9%, Republicans - 226K/38.6%, Other - 103K/17.6%
FL in-person early votes, cumulative day 3:
Democrats - 370K/42.9%, Republicans - 336K/39.0%, Other - 156K/18.1%
I just tweeted him requesting the link, I’ll pass it on when/if he responds
FL Atlantic U and it was “people certain to vote.” Trump led 16, but don’t worry about that one. Just watch the real numbers Speedy provides.
We got FL. We got OH. We got NC. We got IA. We got ME2.
Just need 10 more electoral votes. NV and CO both closing up fast. NH closing fast. I think PA is ours.
Here’s the info on the NFU poll today:
https://www.unf.edu/coas/porl/October_27,_2016_-_Poll_of_Likely_Voters_Shows_that_Hillary_Clinton,_Marco_Rubio_Amendment_2_hold_onto_leads_in_Florida.aspx
“Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. “
Okay, thanks!
When you say closing up fast, do you mean in our direction or closed to a potential win and need to move on?
“I’ll stand in my cement-covered bunker.”
Concrete. Not cement. Cement is a powder that when mixed with sand, gravel, and water, hardens into concrete.
Anecdotal, but there are zero Hillary yard signs to be seen in most areas of Colorado.
Democrats and Republicans, alike, are pissed off at the eGOP for their Cruz shenanigans and for screwing Bernie the way the DNC did.
People wants jobs and to get rid of ObamaCare. Those two issues are the two single most important issues here. Colorado has a constitutional issue on the ballot to make Colorado a single payer socialist healthcare State. The liberals know ObamaCare is doomed to failure.
I pinged you yesterday that several GOP counties in Florida haven’t started early voting. They will start Saturday. Keep an eye on Sundays total.
CO, NV, NH closing fast in our direction.
Thanks for apprising me of the distinction.
Yes, concrete, then.
Thanks for the information. The Colorado SOS website is not as intuitive as the one in Florida.
And the NC situation is hard to figure. Probably, in part, because of the bathroom thing.
Very interesting thanks for posting.
Kansas required postage on mail in ballots. However, if u preferred, you could hand carry it to the election office or early voting poll.
Self-ping follow up reminder.
Notable in that poll is that the results are within the MOE. +/-3.38%, which is Clinton’s margin over Trump there.
It’s a dead heat. Floridians need to get out and vote!!
Bueno...thanks...that’ll do it!
Nobody ever calculates for how many Dems are voting Trump. I live in Florida and can tell you the Dem Trump vote is significant. Not to mention the Unaffiliateds for Trump. (Sometimes called “independents.”)
Right. If they are GOP counties, that will add to our margin.
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