I don’t know what the polling there says, but YES, I think ever state in the rust belt, beyond IL and MN is absolutely in play for Trump... I am in PA.. and I can tell you I moved here in 86, and I have never seen the pure enthusiasm for an R here, ever, and it went Bush in 88.
Here is PA history by the numbers:
1996 D 2.21 R 1.8 3rd party about .43
2000 D 2.48 R 2.28 about a 200k difference...
2004 D 2.94 R 2.79
Then comes 2008 and 2012:
2008 D 3.3M R 2.65
2012 D 3.0M R 2.7
R’s have shown, even with lousy unpopular candidates they can put 2.7M votes in the box without any issue. They have done it in 3 straight elections, with some pretty big dogs on top of the ticket.
Trump should absolutely blow 2.7 out of the water... and I really don’t see how Hillary gets near Obama 12 or Kerry 04 numbers.... Which were roughly the same.
The enthusiasm just isn’t there, anywhere for her... even the folks who i know are going to vote for her offer no reason or enthusiasm, just well at least she’s not Trump... She lies 25% of the time, Trump likes 100%...e tc etc... I just don’t see her getting more than 2.5/6 M votes in the box of Nov 8th.
I’d expect her to be closer to Gore’s numbers... and I fully expect Trump to be at least at 3M mark. If PA can put up 2.7 for 3 elections in a row, with little if any enthusiasm for any of the candidates... Trump should shatter that thing wide the hell open.
Thanks for all the thoughtful analysis and good info for PA.
Sounds reasonable.
If Trump wins PA, he's definitely the next President.
Do you have any thoughts on Trump's chances in MI and WI? Or even VT and NH?
The Revolution is ON!
Vote Trump!