Florida Early Vote update, 10/25/2016

10/25/2016 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

Here are the RETURNED Florida Absentee Ballot numbers for 2016 (REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012). Approximately 41.5% of Absentee Ballots have been returned at this point.

44.1% of REP ballots, have been returned and 41.7% of DEM ballots have been returned.

10/25/16: REPs - 556,058, DEMs - 525,076 lead of 30,982 for REPs, 42.0% to 39.7%

10/24/16: REPs - 503,632, DEMs - 483,019 lead of 20,613 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.0%

10/23/16: REPs - 496,040, DEMs - 476,292 lead of 19,748 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.0%

10/22/16: REPs - 463,959, DEMs - 443,502 lead of 20,457 for REPs, 41.8% to 40.0%

10/21/16: REPs - 416,778, DEMs - 399,434 lead of 17,344 for REPs, 41.8% to 40.0%

For Hillsborough [battleground/swing county] (DEMs had a lead of 20,000 in 2012 early voting - that's absentee ballots plus in-person early voting):

10/25/16: REPs - 41,660, DEMs - 50,050, lead of 8,390 for DEMs <== Now reflects absentee + in-person early voting

10/24/16: REPs - 33,400, DEMs - 38,935, lead of 5,535 for DEMs

10/23/16: REPs - 31,163, DEMs - 36,362, lead of 5,199 for DEMs

10/22/16: REPs - 31,163, DEMs - 36,362, lead of 5,199 for DEMs

10/21/16: REPs - 28,710, DEMs - 33,635, lead of 4,925 for DEMs

[Jeff Chandler]

I live in Fayetteville, NC. The AA early vote is waaaaay down.

How do you know?

I know a lot of registered D’s on the Trump Train.

From your keyboard to God's monitor.

[mrs9x]

There is a very good website with a ton of stats on it for North Carolina, www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com It has all of the voters broken down by age, race, etc. African-Americans are down compared to 2012.

[Ravi]

Through yesterday, AA vote is 23.9%. It was 27.4% in 2012.

www.electproject.org/2012_early_vote

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

[Jeff Chandler]

Thanks! I believe the AA vote will be higher R than in many a cycle. I just can’t see AA men voting for America’s Mother-In-Law.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Duval County comparison. These are VOTED but not COUNTED numbers.

2012

Absentee Ballot: REP - 39,686, DEM - 30157, REP lead of 9529, 48.0% to 36.5%, margin of 11.5%

In-Person Early: REP - 63,694, DEM - 86,124, DEM lead of 22,430, 36.5% to 49.3%, margin of 12.8%

Election Day Vote: REP 63,007, DEM - 63,072, DEM lead of 65, 40.0% to 40.0%

Total Voted: REP - 166,387, DEM - 179, 353, DEM lead of 12,966, 43.2% to 40.1

2012 COUNTED results: Obama - 47.67%, 196,737 Romney - 51.27% 211,615. Romney obviously won the independents and carried the county.

2016 (VOTED but not COUNTED)

Absentee Ballot: REP - 14,960, DEM - 11,945, REP lead of 3,015, 48.2% to 38.5%, margin of 9.7%

In-Person Early: REP - 6,127, DEM - 7,878, DEM lead of 1,751, 38.3% to 49.2% , margin of 10.9%

Election Day Vote: REP - 0, DEM - 0

Total Voted: REP - 21,087, DEM - 19823, REP lead of 1,264

REP absentee lead is down slightly from 2012 (9.7% vs 11.5%)

DEM in-person lead is down slightly from 2012 (10.9% vs 12.8%)

[SpeedyInTexas]

I read that AAs were 7% of absentee ballots in Ohio this year compared to 10% in 2012. Can’t remember if it was requested ballots or returned ballots.

I think I read it on McDonalds twitter account: https://twitter.com/ElectProject

[Ravi]

Thanks. You should play around with cuyahoga vote labels compare 2012 to 2016. Good stuff there. Was looking at it last night.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Post some numbers!

[Ravi]

Feeling lazy. But the overall numbers showed 30,000 fewer votes out of Cuyahoga this year compared to 2012 at equivalent points two weeks from the election. Fascinating info.

[LS]

Bill, am I reading this right? We went from D lead of 12,000 in 2012 to R lead of 1200 today?????

[Hyman Roth]

I have a polling place right across street from my office. Been watching the lines. In 2008 and 2012 they were lined up like zombies, literally, to vote for Barack. This year not so much.

[Jeff Chandler]

Anecdotal, but at this point I’ll take it.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Yes, BUT 2012s numbers including the entire in-person early voting period.

For 2016, we’ve only had 1 day of in-person early voting. I wouldn’t compare the raw numbers at this point, but only the percentages.

Absentee balloting, REP margin has decreased. In-person early voting, DEM margin has decreased.

[Ravi]

From Oldnorthstatepolitics.com through 10/25:

“The total percentages indicate that there are fewer black/African-American voters utilizing early in-person voting. This could be expected, due to Obama not being at the top of the ticket.”

Scroll down to the graph white/AA vote percentages. Very interesting daily comparison from 2012 to 2016.

[Ravi]

ping

[SpeedyInTexas]

Yep, very interesting. We that to happen with in-person early voting in Florida.

[Hyman Roth]

I also have friends who work at various polling places and they say the same. Still anecdotal but it does make some sense.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Have you seen any direct comparisons for Florida, Day 1 2016 vs 2012 for in-person early voting?

I haven’t seen any yet. Makes me suspicious, it is bad news for Dems and “they” don’t want to report it.

[mrsmith]

Another FWIW...
“Frank Luntz ;@FrankLuntz · 1h1 hour ago

One day before Election Day 2012, FLORIDA Dems led early voting 43% vs. 40%.
This year, GOPs lead 41.2% vs. 40.75%.”
As you say, this is only one day of 2016 vs all of 2012.

[Ravi]

That’s my thoughts exactly! They know but won’t tell us. Electionsmith.com should be all over the 1st day but nary a peep from him. We will have to look for old articles online.