Let’s fisk this puppy.
1) This inaugural 2016 ABC News tracking poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, was conducted Thursday through Saturday among 1,391 adults, including 874 likely voters.
2) “...and the final debate, which likely voters by 52-29 percent say Clinton won.”
3) “The previous ABC/Post poll found a sharp 12-point decline in enthusiasm for Trump among his supporters, almost exclusively among those who’d preferred a different GOP nominee. Intended participation now has followed: The share of registered Republicans who are likely to vote is down 7 points since mid-October.”>
4) “• That said, Clinton’s also ahead numerically (albeit not significantly) among men, 44-41 percent, a first in ABC News and ABC/Post polling.”
5) This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish,
6) Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
7) The internals .pdf says “*Combines Oct. 22 and Oct. 13 polls for sufficient sample size.”
8) NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE – LIKELY VOTERS
10/22/16 Hillary Donald
50 38
They polled a majority of people who thought Clinton ‘won’ the 3rd debate. Explains a lot. This was probably the first question asked. If the respondents said Trump they were hung up on
Sounds like #3 is the secret sauce. They’re assuming any Republican who preferred a different primary candidate is not likely to vote. They move them from the likely voter column to the adults column, and the poll is cooked.