Wouldn’t it be a hoot if Gary Johnson was elected on Nov 8?
1980 Poll Numbers
October/November
Reagan Carter Anderson
40% 44% 9%
39% 45% 9%
47% 44% 8%
Actual Result
51% 41% 7%
Difference between actual result and final poll
+4% -3% -1%
Source
Read more: http://www.headlineoftheday.com/#ixzz4NnPns3Ld
I really don’t believe in this poll. It’s like that people’s decision is a “random number” than flips at every hour.
I don’t get this. I hope she’s not getting a bounce from the last debate because I thought she was more terrible than usual.
Statistical noise.
Trump is still in the lead.
No major upswing by Hillary.
Oh well. I was hoping Trump would start to take over in some of these polls. Either he’s not getting the support, or the polls aren’t showing it. I can’t say it’s one over the other.
Polling illegals again
The internals are such that two fine Amish young men - 1 for Trump, 1 for Cankles - are moving this poll +/-1 on the given day that is their turn to be interviewed.
I also get that not understanding the internals is too much temptation for most people, and they must talk about the poll. I get that.
"If a poll has a small number of people who belong to a particular group — young black men, for example — there’s always a risk that those few respondents won’t truly represent the group’s views.In the case of the Daybreak poll, there’s one young black respondent who is a strong supporter of Trump. He hasn’t responded to the poll every week, but when he does, he pushes up Trump’s number among African Americans.
When the poll’s results shift suddenly, the margin of error increases. That should be a red flag for everyone that such a blip in the poll’s results may simply be statistical noise, not a real shift in public opinion...
He did have some impact on Trump’s support some weeks — often less than a point, but definitely a measurable difference. It’s not a huge shift, but if several small shifts all move in the same direction, they can add up. Of course, the whole point of weighting is to make sure that all groups are represented; Trump does have some young supporters, even among minority groups.
There’s another young, black man in the poll who is a strong Clinton supporter. When he participates, he pushes up Clinton’s vote. Both men have strong weights in the poll because they are part of a group that would otherwise be underrepresented."
It is worth remembering that for a poll of 1000 people, the tenths digit basically represents one person.
The Achilles' heal of every poll is who gets polled. By using the same people for every day, this poll removes that variable from affecting their result, but it also means that it can miss large movements of who will actually go to the polls, which is probably the more interesting question in this election. And much harder to answer.
This election is fairly unprecedented, for a long list of reasons I won't recite. I wish I knew, because if Hillary is elected, it is over. Even if Trump is elected, unless he makes some pretty extreme changes, it will only be a temporary reprieve. By the time most people figure that out, it will have been too late by a long shot.
I missed something along the way. When did this poll become significant or even reputable? Seems I never heard of it until this year.
Other than USC and Dornsife what is known about the sponsors?
Wisconsin Early Votes Cast!!!
With 1.8 Million so far, Trump leads by a little over 11%,
42 to 29!!!
Meanwhile, Paul Ryan trails by five points. Delicious!!!
Wouldn’t it be awesome if The Badger State delivered like this ultimately for Trump and America come election night!!!