The internals are such that two fine Amish young men - 1 for Trump, 1 for Cankles - are moving this poll +/-1 on the given day that is their turn to be interviewed.
I also get that not understanding the internals is too much temptation for most people, and they must talk about the poll. I get that.
"If a poll has a small number of people who belong to a particular group — young black men, for example — there’s always a risk that those few respondents won’t truly represent the group’s views.In the case of the Daybreak poll, there’s one young black respondent who is a strong supporter of Trump. He hasn’t responded to the poll every week, but when he does, he pushes up Trump’s number among African Americans.
When the poll’s results shift suddenly, the margin of error increases. That should be a red flag for everyone that such a blip in the poll’s results may simply be statistical noise, not a real shift in public opinion...
He did have some impact on Trump’s support some weeks — often less than a point, but definitely a measurable difference. It’s not a huge shift, but if several small shifts all move in the same direction, they can add up. Of course, the whole point of weighting is to make sure that all groups are represented; Trump does have some young supporters, even among minority groups.
There’s another young, black man in the poll who is a strong Clinton supporter. When he participates, he pushes up Clinton’s vote. Both men have strong weights in the poll because they are part of a group that would otherwise be underrepresented."
lol...
The internals are such that two fine Amish young men
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1 lesbian illegal keeps getting polled 3x in each survey.