Florida Absentee Ballot update, 10/21/2016

10/21/2016 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

Here are the RETURNED Florida Absentee Ballot numbers for 2016 (REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012). Approximately 32.1% of Absentee Ballots have been returned at this point.

10/21/16: REPs - 416,778, DEMs - 399,434 lead of 17,344 for REPs, 41.8% to 40.0%

10/20/16: REPs - 369,467, DEMs - 356,635 lead of 12,832 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.2%

10/19/16: REPs - 316,400, DEMs - 305,626 lead of 10,774 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.3%

10/18/16: REPs - 265,657, DEMs - 259,824 lead of 5,833 for REPs, 41.5% to 40.6%

10/17/16: REPs - 210,629, DEMs - 210,595 lead of 34 for REPs, 41.07% to 41.06%

10/16/16: REPs - 198,674, DEMs - 193,610 lead of 5,064 for REPs, 41.5% to 40.5%

10/15/16: REPs - 169,862, DEMs - 163,598 lead of 6,264 for REPs, 41.8% to 40.3%

10/14/16: REPs - 130,758, DEMs - 124,773 lead of 5,985 for REPs, 42.0% to 40.1%

For Hillsborough [battleground/swing county] (DEMs had a lead of 20,000 in 2012 early voting - that's absentee ballots plus in-person early voting):

10/21/16: REPs - 28,710, DEMs - 33,635, lead of 4,925 for DEMs

10/20/16: REPs - 26,515, DEMs - 31,311, lead of 4,796 for DEMs

10/19/16: REPs - 23,905, DEMs - 28,411, lead of 4,506 for DEMs

10/18/16: REPs - 18,585, DEMs - 22,338, lead of 3,753 for DEMs

10/17/16: REPs - 16,642, DEMs - 20,073, lead of 3,431 for DEMs

10/16/16: REPs - 16,642, DEMs - 20,073, lead of 3,431 for DEMs

10/15/16: REPs - 16,643, DEMs - 20,073, lead of 3,430 for DEMs

10/14/16: REPs - 12,937, DEMs - 15,764, lead of 2,827 for DEMs

[LS]

I think hurticane also slowed things down

[SpeedyInTexas]

A) 79,000 more R absentee ballots returned.

The balance of absentee ballots (not D or R) are independents and other parties.

[MrChips]

You keep doing this every day and leaving me confused with your analysis. Could you clarify. When I look at the numbers, it seems that Republicans are performing about the same as in 2012 statewide, and that the Dems are UNDERperforming in Hillsborough. Am I wrong?

[SpeedyInTexas]

Yes, with a caveat.

Right now, Rs lead Ds in RETURNED absentee ballots by 1.8%. I think that can grow to 3% by election date. That would match the 2012 lead for Rs. In that sense, “similar” to 2012 - for absentee voting.

For Hillsorough, DEMs led by 20,000 in 2012 for combined Absentee ballots and in-person early voting. So far in 2016 they are leading by just under 5000. But no in-person voting yet. That starts next week. I assume their lead will grow with in-person voting. Question is whether their lead is over / under 20,000. Under 20,000 is good for us and over 20,000 is good for DEMs. It is too early to draw conclusions from Hillsborough until we see in-person early voting numbers.

Conclusion: Rs looking similar to 2012 in absentee voting. Too early to tell yet on Hillsborough. Hillsborough county is the typical “swing” county in Florida.

[Sidebar Moderator]

Thanks for the updates!

[ConservativeDude]

I know some Floridians who had major disruption in their lives b/c of the hurricane. Turned out to be a non-event, but, yes, the point being....early voting stuff hasn’t been on their minds last few weeks.

[LS]

Have one friend who really buttoned up and it missed him. But he was without power for days and had to clear fallen trees from his property