http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/us/politics/13caucus.html?_r=1
...Since Gallup began presidential polling in 1936, only one candidate has overcome a deficit that large [7 points], and this late, to win the White House: Ronald Reagan, who trailed President Jimmy Carter 47 percent to 39 percent in a survey completed on Oct. 26, 1980...
He is tied or ahead in the polls that have been most accurate. Guess they missed that when they quoted the polls that have been awful during the primaries.