Really where do you folks get this info? D+24? Lol. Why not D+40?
It was D+7 of D+9, depending how you classify the soft D and R support
Go back and look at the, “Who did you vote for...” question. That question ALONE was 14 or 16 +D vs R. Then look at “new voters”. 15 points. Does anyone think new voters are gonna break even? Of course not. I give one third to Trump. There is 24 to 26 RIGHT THERE.
BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE! That poll claimed 2 points for I CAN’T REMEMBER. Really? Does anyone, and I mean ANYONE believe that? Split these two however you wish but I have made my point. This poll is giving Hillary a 24 point, conservatively, head start. Which is what it takes for her to win by 11. QED, she is tanking.
It was D+7 of D+9, depending how you classify the soft D and R support
But even D+7 or D+9 seems a great stretch, the electorate was D+6 in 2012. The pollsters are actually claiming that Hillary is going to motivate democrats to vote for her to a greater degree than Obama did in 2012?!? I just don't see it, every poll I've seen shows MUCH greater motivation on the Republican side. Will it be enough for Trump to win? Who knows? But even if you cut the polls democrat advantage in half to a D+3 or D+4, then many of the polls (such as the Washington Post poll become a tie), and if you predict the electorate will look more like a midterm (R+2) then Trump actually has a substantial lead....
There is a well-known phenomenon of more voters after the fact reporting that they voted for the presidential winner than actually did—so that sort of self-reporting to some degree needs to be discounted: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2009/06/lies_damn_lies_and_votes_for_obama.html and http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/10/the_bush_landsl.html
This poll reported (below) a split between strong and not strong Democrats/Republicans of 34/26. I see that as off by a couple of points from either registration or actual voters in 2012. So I think you could discount the gap they found by a couple of points there.
Not in terms of polling, but in terms of legitimate election-day votes, I think there is still a pro-Trump enthusiasm gap. But that shouldn’t necessarily go into how they weight or balance their respondents—and I think that effect could well be negated by Democrat fraud.
This is also a joint Dem/GOPe poll with a bias on both sides against Trump IMO (why else the odd question as to whether voters would like to vote for Republicans in Congress to balance out Hillary as president?)
But later in the poll, self-identification as to liberal, moderate or conservative is just a couple of points biased toward liberal from what Gallup found earlier this year: http://www.gallup.com/poll/188129/conservatives-hang-ideology-lead-thread.aspx
The percentage identifying as fundamentalist Christian is also pretty much in line with that found among Americans generally. This to me suggests the poll is indeed only a couple of points biased in sample toward Hillary. Yes, people are probably less likely to admit to supporting Trump. Yes, he may thus or as well get a bit more of the undecided or current third-party vote. Yes, these pollsters likely are working to produce results, in these couple of weeks especially, that bias toward Hillary.
But I don’t see a shred of evidence that they are sampling anywhere near a +24 Democrat skew.
Here is the Dem/GOP voter id question from the poll:
Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF “DEMOCRAT” OR “REPUBLICAN,” ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF “NOT SURE,” CODE AS “NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.”) (IF “INDEPENDENT,” ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? (IF “NOT SURE,” CODE AS “STRICTLY INDEPENDENT.”)
Strong Democrat.............26
Not very strong Democrat....8
Independent/lean Democrat...9
Strictly Independent........12
Independent/lean Republican.10
Not very strong Republican..7
Strong Republican ..........19
Other (VOL).................5
Not sure ...................4
https://www.scribd.com/document/327067170/161027-NBCWSJ-October-N-500-Poll