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To: NYC-RepublicanCT; wastoute

There is a well-known phenomenon of more voters after the fact reporting that they voted for the presidential winner than actually did—so that sort of self-reporting to some degree needs to be discounted: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2009/06/lies_damn_lies_and_votes_for_obama.html and http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/10/the_bush_landsl.html

This poll reported (below) a split between strong and not strong Democrats/Republicans of 34/26. I see that as off by a couple of points from either registration or actual voters in 2012. So I think you could discount the gap they found by a couple of points there.

Not in terms of polling, but in terms of legitimate election-day votes, I think there is still a pro-Trump enthusiasm gap. But that shouldn’t necessarily go into how they weight or balance their respondents—and I think that effect could well be negated by Democrat fraud.

This is also a joint Dem/GOPe poll with a bias on both sides against Trump IMO (why else the odd question as to whether voters would like to vote for Republicans in Congress to balance out Hillary as president?)

But later in the poll, self-identification as to liberal, moderate or conservative is just a couple of points biased toward liberal from what Gallup found earlier this year: http://www.gallup.com/poll/188129/conservatives-hang-ideology-lead-thread.aspx

The percentage identifying as fundamentalist Christian is also pretty much in line with that found among Americans generally. This to me suggests the poll is indeed only a couple of points biased in sample toward Hillary. Yes, people are probably less likely to admit to supporting Trump. Yes, he may thus or as well get a bit more of the undecided or current third-party vote. Yes, these pollsters likely are working to produce results, in these couple of weeks especially, that bias toward Hillary.

But I don’t see a shred of evidence that they are sampling anywhere near a +24 Democrat skew.

Here is the Dem/GOP voter id question from the poll:

Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something else? (IF “DEMOCRAT” OR “REPUBLICAN,” ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican) or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF “NOT SURE,” CODE AS “NOT VERY STRONG DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.”) (IF “INDEPENDENT,” ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? (IF “NOT SURE,” CODE AS “STRICTLY INDEPENDENT.”)
Strong Democrat.............26
Not very strong Democrat....8
Independent/lean Democrat...9
Strictly Independent........12
Independent/lean Republican.10
Not very strong Republican..7
Strong Republican ..........19
Other (VOL).................5
Not sure ...................4

https://www.scribd.com/document/327067170/161027-NBCWSJ-October-N-500-Poll


55 posted on 10/17/2016 5:58:06 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: 9YearLurker

The alleged + 24 Dem skew may be ALL Dems (43) v. just STRONG GOP (19). Not the right way to look at it.


64 posted on 10/17/2016 8:14:25 AM PDT by BohDaThone
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