What’s your theory on why the polls overestimated Romney’s vote in 2012? If there was real poll bias, they would have been just as motivated to help Obama in 2012. More motivated because Obama is more loved by liberals. Conservatives screamed about oversampling dems for months in 2012, and got egg on their face. I wouldn’t trust any single poll, but if you look at the RCP average, it is going to be pretty close to accurate, and it looks pretty bad right now.
RCP average was not correct in 2012.
I got hoodwinked. I listened to Hewitt, Barone, and the Toe sucker Morris. They were so flippin' out too lunch it wasn't funny. Now, Nate Silver called it via social media in 08' and 12' he was ahead of the curve, that was the juice vote, how and why they oversampled Romney, can only be one thing, They wanted him in the race too suck all the money they could out of him, win or lose, the consultant class got paid, didn't matter what side they were on, their checks didn't bounce. Notice with .09% with landlines even Barone isn't jumping in this time, it is a whole new ball game. No one can call the Trump movement because over 30 years of Political Correctness, and Identity politics have woosified so many as they fear for their jobs like the Founder of Mozilla/Firefox, and dare not speak the truth. One reason I posted this thread is because exogenous factors such as the Rallys, social media etc are telling us something that Barone, Silver and all the media and polls can't, and that is my gut and "Sundance" over @ CTH and his statistical research.