[Tanniker Smith]

Who is good at explaining the whole "95% confidence level" -- Yes, I'm a math teacher, but mostly Algebra and we really don't go there. I know what it is, but I couldn't explain easily about calculating it.

Okay, reason I'm asking:
Look at the CHARACTERISTICS OF CANDIDATE SUPPORT page
You see those gray bands in the middle. There's a 95% confidence in the winner when it appears about the band. Sort of a margin of error thing.

Okay, now go to the Black vote. Notice anything strange? The gray band is irregularly shape. It has those weird bulges. And every bulge seems to coincide with Trump's support among Blacks jumping from 3-5% to 12-20%.

Q: which are the anomalies here? Does the bigger gray area mean a larger margin or error or something? Fewer people surveyed?

I'm curious about this.

[theoilpainter]

According to an analysis I read on FR, this change could be due to one Black male Trump supporter who is polled once every several days. This poll, for better or worse, polls the same people.

So...one Black male Trump supporter supposedly gets a lot of weight compared to others, and may skew this poll, or so the theory goes.