I agree with you.
Over the long haul things average out.
The market can’t and won’t go up forever.
Frankly, I have no idea how the market rose this high in light of the economic stagnation and unemployment.
The average savings, of those who have any has dropped more than 50% due to the dilution with more paper.
Currently, the next best place is paying down debt, saves on the interest charged, but it is not sexy, and with minimal risk, far less volatility, and possible profits, for those who like the risk.
One basic model to determine stock prices, Dividends/interest rate or earnings/interest rate. The interest rate on say one year government bonds is very low. So as interest rates fall stock prices go up. (This is a very broad observation and lots of exceptions. One outcome of the Obama Fed is that interest rates on government bonds and CD’s are very very low, which has destroyed any incentives for the middle class to save. To earn higher returns many have invested in the stock market-a bubble to be sure. When interest rates go up the value of many common stocks will go down quite a bit.