Posted on 10/12/2016 12:16:05 AM PDT by BlessedBeGod
Change
Trump: down 1.3
Clinton: up 1.1
10/12
Trump: 44.0
Clinton: 44.4
10/11
Trump: 45.3
Clinton: 43.3
(Excerpt) Read more at cesrusc.org ...
I read that Steve Bannon is more involved now, and he's undoubtedly much better at throwing full diapers further than Kellyanne or even the Democrats.
I also read that the GOP-ers were assured that Trump would drop out this past weekend (because he said "****"????) and that's why so many jumped ship.
Trump is running against the Democrats, the eGOP AND the MSM. Can he do it? Sure. But it's going to cost him a ton of money. He needs to really, really want this.
It’s actually from 10/5 - 10/11
That factor, more than any other, is what causes me to view this poll as hinky. The single day shifts in the poll report, require single day shifts 7 times bigger. Drop Trump by 1 point takes a 7 point drop in a one day sample.
Looking just at the female/male breakout, the drop today is ALL MALE! That's weird too. So is the general contour of the African American graph.
All of those sudden moves require much larger single average moves, among what is supposedly a (mostly) fixed group of people polled. My bottom line is I don't find the poll credible.
Either that, or it's as you say. People treat the question like "what would you like for lunch today" and give their answer about the same amount of thought.
it's a 7 day tracking poll.. from 10/5 - 10/11... it captures 4.5 days of post tape, and 2 days of post-debate
Collusion
There are no boundaries in this Election. I think that favors Trump. Hillary has been negative carpet bombing for weeks now with some result, but Trump has kept the lights on and the busses running while keeping his powder dry. A lot can happen in four weeks.
Trump must have had a really bad day or two after the tape came out (6-7 point drop in one day like you suggested) for this more than one point drop to happen.
This poll usually only moves in tenths of one percent one way or the other in one day, not more than one percent.
and there are still hundreds of posts here about "internals", and "skewing", and "roll-off".......
just like there were in 1972......
get used to President HRC.
This is day four of the rolling poll and was to be expected. The Trump tape took effect yesterday and will be WORSE tomorrow. Then the results of the second debate and the new email drops will take hold. There may be some “Wilder factor” here as well. The “Wilder Factor” is a phenomena in polling where people will tell pollsters something other than what they really think. In the Doug Wilder situation he was winning in polls in Virginia before the election but lost. It turned out that people SAID they would vote for him indicating that Wilder being Black made no difference. It did.
So it is possible that some voters especially women told Dornsife they were against Trump because they think that is how they are supposed to think. We’ll see.
Yes, the people are like sheep, they may mewl and bleat, but in the end, they care not who their shepherd is as long as they are well fed.
Great point! Thx
Shows that unfortunately the tape had a big effect
Some of the subgroups have huge daily jumps. The African American group caught my eye the first time it jumped up (and right back down exactly 7 days later).
I think the poll is manipulated by the pollster, and easy to manipulate.
Hee hee!! Love it...thanks for posting my thoughts, Ken :)
We all knew the tape was going to have an effect. The thing is, Hillary’s support is very soft. We need to see where the race is in about a week. By then, the effect of the tape will wear off, and for all we know, Hillary could say something remarkably stupid (or be caught on tape saying something bad). This is a very fluid election. We have three weeks to go, an eternity.
Agree. It is likely collusion with other pollsters (and possibly Clinton campaign) to cook their numbers as others here have suggested. They are trying, like other MSM polls to depress turnout of Trump supporters.
I’ve not heard ONE person....in my work, friend, family, board/club circles mention this stinking tape.
The ONLY ones I’ve heard mention it are the MSM - non-stop/24/7 - when I’m at the airport, doctor, salon, etc.
So....my take is that only the LIV’s are being *polled*.
Hillary's lead drops by a point. She's up by 4. Was up 5 yesterday
The good news here.. Trump leads Indies... and he's only getting 71% of the Repub vote.. if he increase his base, he grabs the lead
Dammit Freepers, stop getting weak-kneed!
It is time for Trump to have a press Conference and announce himself as an “Independent-Republican”!
Just by CALLING himself “Independent-Republican” he will generate buzz and enthusiasm.....LET’S GET THOSE MEME’S ROLLING!!
It will be interesting to see how long the media can continue their blackout on the daily drip-drip-drip of devastating WikiLeaks revelations.
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