When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. Only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida and Georgia. Modest deviations to the right could keep much of the hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are possible in the Hurricane Watch and warning areas in northeast Georgia and South Carolina.
My personal unproven theory...land offers more resistance to circulation than ocean, so a graze w geometry like this tends to push the eye offshore. Actual track is the sum of steering currents including this (if I’m correct)...so this issue only has effect during wobbles.