My personal unproven theory...land offers more resistance to circulation than ocean, so a graze w geometry like this tends to push the eye offshore. Actual track is the sum of steering currents including this (if I’m correct)...so this issue only has effect during wobbles.
Interesting idea. I wonder then, if a perpendicular hit is much easier to predict?
Yes, this was discussed a couple of days ago. 2004 Ivan was a great example of a strong storm bouncing along the coast of Cuba, rather than driving inland.