Posted on 10/06/2016 4:10:09 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Matthew is big, bad and just downright scary, with iminent and sustained impacts to U.S. mainland. Florida Governor Rick Scott issued a state of emergency for all of Florida and disaster operations are activated. More than 1.5 million Floridians reside in current evacuation zones. Governor Scott has spoken with utilities across the state to ensure utilities are pre-positioned and there are no unmet needs. Multiple coastal hospitals have been evacuated. Meanwhile, feckless President Barack Hussein Obama is personally monitoring the progress of the storm.
Cone of Death Historic Archive Loop
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NHC Local Hurricane Statements
Florida Radar Loop
Florida & Eastern Gulf Buoy Locations
SE Atlantic Coast Buoy Locations
SE U.S. Radar Sector
FL Emergency Management Disaster Info by County
Local News Sources: Palm Beach Post
WFLC FOX 29
WPTV West Palm Beach
WPEC CBS 12 Palm Beach
My News 13 Brevard
WOFL FOX 35 Orlando
WFTV 9 ABC News Orlando
TC Palm (Treasure Coast)
Space Coast Daily
If the info above doesn't satisfy your need for speed and graphics, strap yourself in for a ride to Mike's Weather Page
Naw!!!
That’s the hildebeast trying to eat TRUMP voters in Florida!
Once again, Nauti Nurse has asked you to take a hike. This is still an active storm with serious storm surge potential. You can gloat all you want once this is over, but for now you are doing a victory dance on the ten yard line.
Joe Bastardi
Oct 7 2016
Matthew Brings Out the Worst, even though Fla Spared the Worst
Nature wins in Florida but the storm has brought out the worst
First the 50 mile bust on my part is a HUGE. I defied alot of my own preaching, when i bought the inland Euro over 167 years of history. The streak continues, that within 75 miles of Cape Canaveral , there have been no major hits since 1851
Second. The Lunacy of people thinking the government is ramping up data and making the storm worse is about as nutty as you can get. First of all I have no idea how anyone at NHC feels about climate change since no one uses any of that in their forecasts. Second suppose they did have an agenda. why would they issue an overhyped forecast only to suffer the pain of a huge bust. You think people are thankful this morning? No , they are demanding explanations for why the space coast is not a ghost! Its like with Gloria in 1985, a major hurricane but because NYC was spared the worst, it was overblown. The Danger here though is that people further north are likely to get it bad or worst and may let down. The storm is over the water longer now and it doesnt care what it did before.
Third. So I used Lunacy as the word for people thinking NHC is hyping the data. I dont know what to use for anyone that tried to use Hermine as an example of climate change and now this. THE STORM WEAKENED AND MISSED If thats climate change, lets have more of it. In fact this is not unlike Irene which was hyped as the great example of global warming
The only thing, the bad and the good that this proves is that nature , not man is in control. We can only get up after what ever happens and fight harder to be right tomorrow. But here is the crucial difference. Off the bat I see the error. What stings more is that I defied my own long standing ideas. But I see that.
I dont think this storms intensity before was an overhyped gvt conspiracy nor is it any example of some climate change apocolypse
If anything the opposite
Sharks! Thanks for the pics. We here in Texas understand the devastation that occurs with any named hurricane and send our best wishes for a quick recovery. Gonna be a tough weekend.
Good on him and good on you too!!!
Bouncing...yes. That is what I tried to express but your description gets it across much better. In a static steering current environment, the land effect would make the center “bounce” along a coast.
I’ll add forward speed. The Mets know the coding in the dropsondes. I can’t verify much these days. Outside of new radar processing, all my links are ten years old and don’t work anymore!
I have been lulled!
Flagler Hospital in St. Augustine is flooding according to a report I read on Twitter. - WU
Storm surge ahead of Hurricane Matthew has now topped the sand dunes in Jacksonville Beach with flooding on 1st Street.
OMG! Who took that shark pic? Where is this?
It’s in Jacksonville....it came up one of the waterways...I saw it earlier about 50 yards in but din’t believe it...but it’s made it’s way somehow to first street apparently...
“nor is it any example of some climate change apocolypse”
Blasphemer!
Family member just emailed photo of their toppled tree and part of their fence blew out too..they are still in the heat of this storm....but they do have power still.
Jacksonville beaches are storm surging down the streets there.....here’s the video link showing it.....
https://www.facebook.com/Cindy.Scott.Music/posts/10209415222675306
Where is that?
Theoretically....null heating...(the effect of solar radiation at 7 am) is driving the bands now impacting the shoreline. Away from land, a blossom of heavier convection will develop during peak heating in the mid (not inner or outer) bands in the afternoon,and when that is ingested into the inner core, look out!
The skull face is a good example, and Freeport took the brunt of that last night.
Up against shoreline, like now, the next cycle of development will necessarily occur up in the northeast quadrant, and affect areas further up the coast tonight.
Turns into a delicate balance...Dev area further north, theoretically cooler, but exact placement of Gulf Stream has major impact.
Frankly...the models have gotten so good at the 24 and 48 hour ranges that this type discussion, outside of cause and effect understanding, is just speculative on my part. Theory is great, but empirical results trump all. With the vast body of info processed by the new supercomps, us peons ride in the back seat now.
When I ran an airline’s datacenter,1997 thru 2002, our primary processing machines were a K Class HPUX server and a Sun USpark w 6 cores. The HP was fridge sized, with a one terabyte mirrored array and six gigs of ram, serving 7000 users worldwide. The Sparc was effectively AI, predicting...all...to feed pricing to the Reservations Floor. (Two calls,to two Res Agents seated side by side,for side by side seats on the same flight, five seconds apart, could result in 100% price swings for those seats. With fuel variable and FAA mandating hi tech safety for already expensive airframes,that AI paid all our paychecks...till it didn’t any more and ATA became Jetblue.)
My mid-class laptops now, individually, blow the doors off all that ancient “big iron.”
Out to 48 hours, the models get it right until areas of low res analysis change enough to alter high res, core interest location forecasts.
If (what’s her name), out SE...gets into this situation..heads up. Theory,check. Massive processing power,check. Coding, check. For one hurricane. Body of historical data with which to verify interaction between two hurricanes?
Nope.
Interesting times.
Great analysis and discussion. During Nicole’s early formative days, a run or two of UKMET had stray data points out East on Matthew’s graph. That was my first guess there was some hanky panky going to happen between those two.
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