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Posted on 10/01/2016 7:00:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Matthew is big, bad and just downright scary, and we await the long anticipated sharp turn northward. Jamaica is completing final storm preparations. All interests in the Eastern U.S. and Bahamas should be carefully watching the track of Mighty Matthew.
Ripped straight from the NHC Discussion page:
Matthew remains south of a low-to mid-level ridge over
the western Atlantic. The dynamical models forecast this ridge to
weaken over the next 72 hours as a mid- to upper-level trough develops
over the Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Matthew to turn
northwestward after 24 hours and northward by 48-72 hours. The guidance
generally agrees with this scenario. However, there is a spread between
the GFS forecast of landfall in Jamaica and eastern Cuba and the ECMWF
forecast landfall in southwestern Haiti. The guidance becomes more
divergent after 72 hours.
Cone of Death Historic Archive Loop
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
Buoy 42058 Central Caribbean (in storm path)
Florida & Eastern Gulf Buoy Locations
SE Atlantic Coast Buoy Locations
SE U.S. Radar Sector
Gitmo Radar (primitive)
Jamaica Radar Loop (primitive)
If the info above doesn't satisfy your need for speed and graphics, strap yourself in for a ride to Mike's Weather Page
It’s Sunday afternoon, and a beautiful day here and in many areas. People have other things to do rather than FReep at times. Those who are potentially in harms way are likely out at Lowes or Home Depot buying supplies, or outside nailing plywood over windows and securing things that could blow away.
Activity on the thread will pick up after dark.
5PM advisory on October 1 just came out. Forecast looks like it is going to go a little further east. Good news, iow.
There are still a few days to watch and see where this one will go.
This one reminds me of Camille in some respects....not good.
Ah! So you know where I’m coming from! I’d love to see some of the ‘danger junky’ weather followers who think ‘buzzsaw’ storms( I actually saw someone bemoan the end of the hurricane season without at least one buzzsaw killer storm) and the ‘OMG there was wind and rain in Manhattan, we’re still traumatized!’ types FLY DOWN to where this is forecast to hit. Get a hotel room on the beach(lots available, sane people will leave), or pay an evacuating homeowner to stay in their house. EXPERIENCE a Cat 4-5! Live the dream, go out and live stream it! Then- if you survive- talk about ‘superstorms’!
I’ve never experienced a hurricane while directly on the coast, but have well inland with Hugo. The wind literally howling for hours, driving rainwater into weird places in the house, listening to the framing of the house creak and pop while the power is out, and hearing heavy objects impacting the exterior, that’s just not pleasant. I’d hate to think of experiencing such a thing even more strongly with the threat of storm surge on top of all that.
If we wait to see what happens, I figure all hotels will already be full.... so not sure how to proceed really.
I just read your homepage and I must say it was fascinating history! Our forefathers had GUTS, courage, bravery, and that fierce and passionate desire for independence....
May the spirit of that independence soon return!
Thanks, and God Bless!
It's Saturday in my part of the woods (the USA), LOL!
Oops.
:)
Glad you enjoyed it, even with the poorly formatted text and lack of any visuals. I’ve always intended to do something more with it, but just never seem to get around to it. As far as the Regulators, I’m a descendant of Ninian Hamilton, and one of my fourth great grandfathers was bound to Captain Benjamin Merrill after his father was killed and mother kidnapped by the Cherokee. My screen name comes from an old quote of George Washington referencing “Regulator country.”
Wow, what history, RC. Sad re: the father who was killed and the mother who was kidnapped. Was she ever rescued? Sometimes some of us forget the courage and bravery AND RISK TAKING that our forefathers took on. Thanks again for posting it, format and all : )
In my experience ask yourself these questions: Is water/storm surge a danger? Can I survive for a week or more without electricity? It’s better to NOT be there and wish you were, then to stay and wish you hadn’t.
His father, my 5th great, was killed while trying to rescue them both, he’d gotten the militia to mount a rescue mission, it was commanded by Hugh Waddell. My 4th, his son, was rescued. They never found his mother. Speculation is that she herself was Cherokee, otherwise they’d have just killed her and her son.
That makes sense, the reason they spared her and the son. It mustn’t have been easy for the boy to lose both parents. Hopefully the extended family took him in and raised/loved him.
Late in the period the track model spread remains considerable, as
the global models continue to have issues depicting the synoptic-
scale pattern over the eastern United States and western Atlantic in
4-5 days. The evolution of the mid/upper-level low currently
centered over the Ohio Valley and how it interacts with the western
Atlantic subtropical ridge appear to be critical to the long-term
track of Matthew. The UKMET and ECMWF tracks have shifted westward
and slower by day 5, while the GFS has trended east. This has
narrowed the guidance envelope somewhat, but given the lack of
run-to-run consistency I'd hesitate to say that confidence in the
long-range track forecast has increased by any appreciable measure.
The new NHC track at these times leans heavily on continuity, and by
day 5 is close to the GFS/ECMWF blend and left of the latest
multi-model consensus aid TVCN.It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.
There wasn’t any extended family nearby, it was wild backcountry wilderness, the frontier of the 1750’s. His uncle came up from the coast and testified at the Court of Pleas and Quarters in Salisbury, then county seat. But, he was bound out by the court to Benjamin Merrill, a prosperous man who could see that he was educated by the standard of the day and would learn a trade, blacksmithing.
Amen!
Oh, absolutely. Bottom line is that the more distant in time, the less accurate the forecast. But what we have now looks good.
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