Hurricane Matthew

NOAA/NHC ^ | 1 October 2016 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Matthew is big, bad and just downright scary, and we await the long anticipated sharp turn northward. Jamaica is completing final storm preparations. All interests in the Eastern U.S. and Bahamas should be carefully watching the track of Mighty Matthew.

Ripped straight from the NHC Discussion page:

Matthew remains south of a low-to mid-level ridge over
the western Atlantic. The dynamical models forecast this ridge to
weaken over the next 72 hours as a mid- to upper-level trough develops
over the Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Matthew to turn
northwestward after 24 hours and northward by 48-72 hours. The guidance
generally agrees with this scenario. However, there is a spread between
the GFS forecast of landfall in Jamaica and eastern Cuba and the ECMWF
forecast landfall in southwestern Haiti. The guidance becomes more
divergent after 72 hours.

Cone of Death Historic Archive Loop

Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links

Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
Buoy 42058 Central Caribbean (in storm path)
Florida & Eastern Gulf Buoy Locations
SE Atlantic Coast Buoy Locations

SE U.S. Radar Sector
Gitmo Radar (primitive)
Jamaica Radar Loop (primitive)

If the info above doesn't satisfy your need for speed and graphics, strap yourself in for a ride to Mike's Weather Page

[NautiNurse]

LOL! Squirrels remind me of fluffy rats. Except in Florida, where squirrel tails are spindly. Squirrels are dog toys.

[NautiNurse]

Florida Squirrel

[alancarp]

Yeah, that would be great stuff to have on hand.
Kinda do wish I had been a meteorologist for days like this :).

[trisham]

This little guy is supposed to fly from Kansas City into Rhode Island on Saturday, where we will pick him up.

I'm a nervous wreck worrying about hurricane Matthew.

Thanks for the thread. It helps to know what's happening.

[NautiNurse]

The latest forecast predictions look like Matthew will avoid both Kansas City and Rhode Island. Florida, otoh, looks like Matthew may make and extended stay with subsequent return for another visit.

Your pup is adorable!!!

[who knows what evil?]

Matthew won’t come anywhere near Red England...the great drought will roll on (for those north of you in Red Hampshire). No worries for the pup.

[alancarp]

Okay, based on the 2PM EDT Advisory from the NHC, here's the timings of events (subject to the usual disclaimers, including the fact that many models (GFS/ECMWF among them) are running this thing up I-95 and A1A while NHC still shows it barely off-shore)

8PM Thursday Eve - eye parallel to Palm Beach - within 60 miles of shore. That's just 30 hours from now, and expected to be a low Category 4 storm.

The motion is forecast to bring Matthew to the coast overnight Thursday, then ride somewhere between the coast and I-95 for the next 200 miles.

That will make a really bad Thurs. night for the area between PB and Melbourne as this thing crawls up the coast...that's only forecasting a 10 mph forward speed.

That's a long time on target with hurricane force winds or better for probably 10 hours at any point along the coast from about Jupiter to Daytona as the storm passes.

8AM Friday Morning (42 hours away) - eye near Cocoa/Cocoa Beach.
8PM Friday Evening (54 hours) - eye near St. Augustine/JAX Beach, probably over water.

Storm surge: The surge will be ahead of the eye, and though I've seen suggestions of 3-5 feet, that frankly sounds light to me for a cat 4 storm.

This map for the Jacksonville area suggests something close to 14 feet of storm surge for a cat. 3 storm, though it does not give any indication about the angle of storm arrival, speed of motion, or anything else helpful to decipher the methodology used.

That said, this map suggests that the area between Brevard and Volusia counties could see 10 feet of surge.

TIDES: Melbourne Beach will have a high tide at 12:23AM Thursday night; Jupiter gets it at 12:44AM... that's not great timing for there and all points between, but the next low tide is 5½ hours later, so that's good news for the area from Sebastian Inlet through Cape Canaveral.

Disclaimer: I lived in Melbourne for 11+ years... saw 1 minimal hurricane (Erin) and rode that out, 5 miles from the ocean. I would be leaving for this.

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

I wouldn’t worry about much If I had a flying dog.

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

Earlier reports here in Charleston inform us that most of the Midlands hotels are full up with evacuees and they suggest they try Greenville/Spartanburg.

Interstate 26 will be switched to all 4 lanes heading out of Charleston only at 3PM.

[blam]

Rush just said that there are new tracks out and they are shifting west and show that it may hit Tampa.

Have you seen anything like that?

[angcat]

AWW he’s beautiful.

[trisham]

Thank you!

[trisham]

Thank you! His breeder is flying with him. She’s taking him in a sherpa bag into the cabin with her.

[trisham]

We had torrential rain on the cape last week and weekend. :)

[trisham]

LOL!

[NautiNurse]

Great analysis! Many thanks.

IIRC, Kennedy Space Center structures are built to withstand Cat. 3 storms.

[angcat]

The Norweigan Breakaway is leaving Bermuda on Friday for NYC? I wonder why Norweigan would allow this trip?

[alancarp]

There’s 1 nutty model that goes to Tampa, but 90% of them are within 50 miles (east or west) of the East coast of Florida. The central consensus indicates a hit on the coastline roughly between Palm Beach and Palm Bay.

[blam]

"There’s 1 nutty model that goes to Tampa, but 90% of them are within 50 miles (east or west) of the East coast of Florida. The central consensus indicates a hit on the coastline roughly between Palm Beach and Palm Bay."

Thanks.

I was hoping he was just 'cutting-up'.

[alancarp]

Appreciated - some of those NASA building might just get a test this week. That’s a point, though - there’s a whole lotta exposed surface area on the VAB.