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Posted on 10/01/2016 7:00:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Matthew is big, bad and just downright scary, and we await the long anticipated sharp turn northward. Jamaica is completing final storm preparations. All interests in the Eastern U.S. and Bahamas should be carefully watching the track of Mighty Matthew.
Ripped straight from the NHC Discussion page:
Matthew remains south of a low-to mid-level ridge over
the western Atlantic. The dynamical models forecast this ridge to
weaken over the next 72 hours as a mid- to upper-level trough develops
over the Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Matthew to turn
northwestward after 24 hours and northward by 48-72 hours. The guidance
generally agrees with this scenario. However, there is a spread between
the GFS forecast of landfall in Jamaica and eastern Cuba and the ECMWF
forecast landfall in southwestern Haiti. The guidance becomes more
divergent after 72 hours.
Cone of Death Historic Archive Loop
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
Buoy 42058 Central Caribbean (in storm path)
Florida & Eastern Gulf Buoy Locations
SE Atlantic Coast Buoy Locations
SE U.S. Radar Sector
Gitmo Radar (primitive)
Jamaica Radar Loop (primitive)
If the info above doesn't satisfy your need for speed and graphics, strap yourself in for a ride to Mike's Weather Page
My guess is that it will track similarly. There is a slow moving Low system entering the Midwest
I hear you. I grew up in NJ and every 10 years or so a hurricane or destructive noreaster would come through. So now I’m in OH and only have to deal with tornados and derechos. But I want to live on the beach in NC someday. Another hurricane magnet...
Looks like us her in Palm Beach county are going to get the end of the whip...
“The 2004 season had numerous unusual occurrences. With six hurricanes reaching at least Category 3 intensity, 2004 also had the most major hurricanes since 1964, a record which would be surpassed in 2005.[22] Florida was severely impacted by four hurricanes during the season – Hurricane Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne. This was the first time four tropical cyclones produced hurricane-force winds in one state during a single season since four hurricanes made landfall in Texas in 1886”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Atlantic_hurricane_season
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I’ve had an irrational hatred of Hurricane Season since 2004... 2005 didn’t help with that... seems it’s the price we pay for living in Florida.
This is a little hard to read, but it looks like Joe thinks the eye will stay about 120-150 miles off-shore until Saturday/Sunday... and then all bets are off from there... as a Cat 4 storm sits in the Gulf Stream and beats the snot out of the Carolina barrier islands.
Maue further tweeted this:
“Westward shift of GEFS ensembles toward Florida is concerning. Waiting on ECMWF guidance at 2 PM for comparision.”
2PM GFS has eye cruising a few miles inland up coast of North Carolina!
Jim Cantore tweet: Blob seems to be disappearing, but #Matthew a Very Dangerous Cat 4 crawling northward. Global models shifting west w/potential USA landfall.
Oh sh............
Yikes--huge shift in the models. Heck--one of them boldly crosses the FL peninsula to Tampa Bay. The official NHC forecast track should be a big wake up call at 5PM.
The people in soviet Red Hampshire have been hoping for some relief from the extreme drought...their wish may come true. All at once.
Great map, thanks. I like Bastardi and his approach. My gut, based on no knowledge has suggested the same. But I’ve been wrong before..
Being in east Central Florida makes me interested in this!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96B_Q6K7GUY
bkmk
I couldn’t handle the cold. I’d be like the Tin Man haha. If I could pick a beach I’d live on Fripp Island SC.
140 MI S OF Tiburon Haiti
225 MI SW OF Port Au Prince Haiti
Max sustained winds...140 mph
Moving N at 7 mph
940 Mb
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
This has the POTENTIAL to be the most destructive and most costly hurricane in history..
The path it COULD take would have the front eyewall moving up NNW the entire east coast of FL with the storm only slowly weakening since it would remain half offshore..then into SC and NC and up north
THIS STORM MAY BE A FACTOR IN THE ELECTION SINCE MANY AREAS WILL NOT FULLY RECOVER IN TIME INCLUDING POWER ... I can foresee many voters(somehow only democratic) voters becoming disenfranchised
18z GFS more west then 12z
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