Posted on 09/29/2016 5:32:29 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT
Following Monday night’s debate, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running virtually even in Rasmussen Reports’ first daily White House Watch survey.
Our latest national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Clinton with 42% support to Trump’s 41%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson earns seven percent (7%) of the vote, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein holds steady at two percent (2%). Three percent (3%) still like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Trump had been moving ahead over the two previous weeks and held a 44% to 39% lead over Clinton last week at this time. It was the first time he had been ahead since mid-July.
Eighty percent (80%) say they are sure which candidate they will vote for, and among these voters, Clinton and Trump are tied with 48% support each. Among voters who say they could still change their minds, it’s Clinton 34%, Trump 33%, Johnson 25% and Stein 8%.
So nothing but positive posts. Nothing objective. Until I am deemed to be here long enough so you don’t think I’m a troll... does that sound about right?
You stated in a prior post that you have posted here for a long while or words to that effect. Since your registration date is barely 2 weeks this makes you a phony. If you are a phony then your motives are in question, so I guess the real answer to what you ask is this. Post whatever you want to post but don’t expect many to look upon any of it with anything but scorn, a scorn you have brought onto yourself.
In my model, it dropped Trump's probability from 44% to 38%.
-PJ
Care to back that up? Go ahead
How do you formulate your model?
NYC-RepublicanCT seems awfully sensitive and very emotional. I guess presidential elections bring out these types of emotions in all of us.
Yes I can prove that “we’re getting into the same trap as past years, picking and choosing polls “ I’ll take that bet!
This is essentially the same thing that Nate Silver at 538 does.
-PJ
What’s your point? Like FReepers were the only conservatives that trashed polls in the past?
Thank you, I was just getting to giving him the answer.
Literally Aug 30th, not months ago
So your wrong interpretation now passes as fact too? Unless you are mods, I have no interest in chatting with you
Familiar with the GIGO phenomenon?
Again, most of your data is based on a 2012 turn out model.
Do you fact data like this into your model or just assume a static electorate?
Gallup: Democrats who ‘will definitely vote’ at 16-year low
No prob, troll
The purpose of my model over the years has never been to predict the outcome, as I am not a pollster gathering my own data.
The purpose of my model has always been to reflect back the aggregate implications of the various polls that do exist.
To that end, consider the following:
l. I do not unskew or otherwise adjust poll results based on what I think. I use the data as presented in order for you to draw conclusions. You can reject it out of hand as garbage, or you can isolate the garbage vs. your own perceptions and publicly call out the garbage and shame pollsters into improving their accuracy.
2. Comparing poll ranges is not enough; margin of error must also be factored in. Polls from different states with different MOEs are hard to conceptualize at an aggregate national level without a model like this to normalize the results.
3. Averaging the polls helps smooth the inconsistencies from different polling biases.
4. Tracking the changes over the weeks is valuable information.
You are not on my ping list. You can see my weekly model report here.
-PJ
My take is that Trump is ahead. Oversampling of Dems by 6% should mean ‘The Witch’ should be up by 7.
I firmly believe that a more forceful debate performance, coupled with the $140mm in ads that he’s committed to, he’ll be VERY difficult to beat.
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