Posted on 09/25/2016 12:39:13 PM PDT by Be Careful
As most of you know, I had been endorsing Hillary Clinton for president, for my personal safety, because I live in California. It isnt safe to be a Trump supporter where I live. And its bad for business too. But recently I switched my endorsement to Trump, and I owe you an explanation. So here it goes.
1. Things I Dont Know: There are many things I dont know. For example, I dont know the best way to defeat ISIS. Neither do you. I dont know the best way to negotiate trade policies. Neither do you. I dont know the best tax policy to lift all boats. Neither do you. My opinion on abortion is that men should follow the lead of women on that topic because doing so produces the most credible laws. So on most political topics, I dont know enough to make a decision. Neither do you, but you probably think you do.
Given the uncertainty about each candidate at least in my own mind I have been saying I am not smart enough to know who would be the best president. That neutrality changed when Clinton proposed raising estate taxes. I understand that issue and I view it as robbery by government.
Ill say more about that, plus some other issues I do understand, below.
2. Confiscation of Property: Clinton proposed a new top Estate Tax of 65% on people with net worth over $500 million. Her website goes to great length to obscure the actual policy details, including the fact that taxes would increase on lower value estates as well. See the total lack of transparency here, where the text simply refers to going back to 2009 rates. It is clear that the intent of the page is to mislead, not inform.
So dont fall for the claim that Clinton has plenty of policy details on her website. She does, but it is organized to mislead, not to inform. Thats far worse than having no details.
The bottom line is that under Clintons plan, estate taxes would be higher for anyone with estates over $5 million(ish). I call this a confiscation tax because income taxes have already been paid on this money. In my case, a dollar I earn today will be taxed at about 50% by various government entities, collectively. With Clintons plan, my remaining 50 cents will be taxed again at 50% when I die. So the government would take 75% of my earnings from now on.
Yes, I can do clever things with trusts to avoid estate taxes. But that is just welfare for lawyers. If the impact of the estate tax is nothing but higher fees for my attorney, and hassle for me, that isnt good news either.
You can argue whether an estate tax is fair or unfair, but fairness is an argument for idiots and children. Fairness isnt an objective quality of the universe. I oppose the estate tax because I was born to modest means and worked 7-days a week for most of my life to be in my current position. (Im working today, Sunday, as per usual.) And I dont want to give 75% of my earnings to the government. (Would you?)
3. Party or Wake: It seems to me that Trump supporters are planning for the worlds biggest party on election night whereas Clinton supporters seem to be preparing for a funeral. I want to be invited to the event that doesnt involve crying and moving to Canada. (This issue isnt my biggest reason.)
4. Clintons Health: To my untrained eyes and ears, Hillary Clinton doesnt look sufficiently healthy mentally or otherwise to be leading the country. If you disagree, take a look at the now-famous Why arent I 50 points ahead video clip. Likewise, Bill Clinton seems to be in bad shape too, and Hillary wouldnt be much use to the country if she is taking care of a dying husband on the side.
5. Pacing and Leading: Trump always takes the extreme position on matters of safety and security for the country, even if those positions are unconstitutional, impractical, evil, or something that the military would refuse to do. Normal people see this as a dangerous situation. Trained persuaders like me see this as something called pacing and leading. Trump paces the public meaning he matches them in their emotional state, and then some. He does that with his extreme responses on immigration, fighting ISIS, stop-and-frisk, etc. Once Trump has established himself as the biggest bad-ass on the topic, he is free to lead, which we see him do by softening his deportation stand, limiting his stop-and-frisk comment to Chicago, reversing his first answer on penalties for abortion, and so on. If you are not trained in persuasion, Trump look scary. If you understand pacing and leading, you might see him as the safest candidate who has ever gotten this close to the presidency. Thats how I see him.
So when Clinton supporters ask me how I could support a fascist, the answer is that he isnt one. Clintons team, with the help of Godzilla, have effectively persuaded the public to see Trump as scary. The persuasion works because Trumps pacing system is not obvious to the public. They see his first offers as evidence of evil. They are not. They are technique.
And being chummy with Putin is more likely to keep us safe, whether you find that distasteful or not. Clinton wants to insult Putin into doing what we want. That approach seems dangerous as hell to me.
6. Persuasion: Economies are driven by psychology. If you expect things to go well tomorrow, you invest today, which causes things to go well tomorrow, as long as others are doing the same. The best kind of president for managing the psychology of citizens and therefore the economy is a trained persuader. You can call that persuader a con man, a snake oil salesman, a carnival barker, or full of shit. Its all persuasion. And Trump simply does it better than I have ever seen anyone do it.
The battle with ISIS is also a persuasion problem. The entire purpose of military action against ISIS is to persuade them to stop, not to kill every single one of them. We need military-grade persuasion to get at the root of the problem. Trump understands persuasion, so he is likely to put more emphasis in that area.
Most of the job of president is persuasion. Presidents dont need to understand policy minutia. They need to listen to experts and then help sell the best expert solutions to the public. Trump sells better than anyone you have ever seen, even if you havent personally bought into him yet. You cant deny his persuasion talents that have gotten him this far.
In summary, I dont understand the policy details and implications of most of either Trumps or Clintons proposed ideas. Neither do you. But I do understand persuasion. I also understand when the government is planning to confiscate the majority of my assets. And I can also distinguish between a deeply unhealthy person and a healthy person, even though I have no medical training. (So can you.)
I will be live streaming my viewing of the debate Monday night, with my co-host and neighbor, Kristina Basham. Tune your television to the debate and use your phone or iPad with the Periscope app, and look for me at @ScottAdamsSays.
See my reply #100.
Here's what Scott Adams wrote on 9-11:
If humans were rational creatures, the time and place of Clinton’s “overheating” wouldn’t matter at all. But when it comes to American psychology, there is no more powerful symbol of terrorism and fear than 9-11 . When a would-be Commander-in-Chief withers – literally – in front of our most emotional reminder of an attack on the homeland, we feel unsafe. And safety is our first priority.Hillary Clinton just became unelectable.
The mainstream media might not interpret today’s events as a big deal. After all, it was only a little episode of overheating. And they will continue covering the play-by-play action until election day. But unless Trump actually does shoot someone on 5th Avenue, he’s running unopposed.
Or this, eleven days later:
n the 2D world in which most people live, Clinton and Trump are polling about evenly, and either one could win. The 2D world is all about facts and policies and common sense. In other words – all the stuff we think we care about but really don’t.
In the 3D world of persuasion, however, the election is already over. There is still some mystery about how large the margin will be, but Trump is already the President of the United States unless something big happens in the next few weeks. How do I know that?
Listen to this clip in which Clinton asks why she isn’t leading by 50 points. Ignore the content of what she says, because no one cares about content. Just feel it.
And see the future.
Scott’s earlier declaration of voting for h-roids for his own safety may have been one of those ‘acts of persuasion’, implying perhaps that anyone who wants him to vote for h-roids is an effin goon. And thus, it may make such people think twice about what they are doing to him.
A certain relative by marriage (now divorced) stashed a lot of stuff, hidden away in crawl spaces etc in his home. No trust, no will. Like a half million in gold & silver. Lots of guns & ammo. Lots of survival gear & food. Plus he has expensive collectibles around the house in the open. I'm sure only a few know about the hidden stuff, and will make a mad dash for it if he dies. His home is in a remote wooded canyon with some neighbors but he doesn't mingle or be friendly with them. Any way, if he dies, it's a good bet the government won't tax these items again.
There's that word again. "Feel".
I am so damned tired of people being led by their feelings. Feelings has almost completely supplanted facts, logic, true compassion, and real thinking among the vast majority of Americans. Every time someone tells me how they feel I want to puke. That's the root of the problem with the low information voters. They don't think. They "feel".
And some of them are your neighbors
“Okay, then I guess Trump should refrain from doing anything.”
How about this: Trump creates the office of “pro-life czar” - and assigns the task to a women...
I'm not fit for this new world coming into being. But what can I do? I can't compromise my faith. That isn't what God would have from us. We are supposed to be using the minds, the conscience that He gave us. But most people especially in America aren't using their minds or conscience. They are betraying their faith. And if there is no real belief in a higher law than man well... we're pretty much screwed.
All the toys get scattered to the guy with the biggest truck ,I guess.
How about this: Trump creates the office of pro-life czar - and assigns the task to a women...
Whether it is a man or a woman is of no consequence to me. I will note that women have been the driving force of abortion policy for the last 50 years. It seems to me they haven't done a bang up job.
My main emphasis is that the best person drive the effort. I'm not convinced Trump wouldn't be that guy. Do we need a right to life czar?
If anything, I want to move away from as many departments as we have, reducing the middle-men in the exchange.
The Department of Education, the I. R. S., the E. P. A...
Remember also, that these czars are not reviewed by Congress. We didn't like it when Clinton and Obama ran away with the idea. I'm not inclined to go that direction.
I believe it is an important issue, but I think the president himself makes the statements that are heard the loudest. I'm hoping he'll be a good advocate for us.
Delegation can be good, but too many times we delegate and then say it's handled.
>>He is just not acting like a pious, elite intellectual because that is not the audience he is targeting.
Have you been following his blog? He does act like a pompous intellectual quite a bit, especially in the early days of the primary when he was just accusing us of falling for a con man (like the Jebbies and Cruzers were also saying that the time).
I’ve been accused of the same thing so I guess I wouldn’t know.
I may not agree with the way he got there, but his opinion will sway some independents that lean liberal. So welcome aboard the Trump Train.
Wally is my hero.
He didn’t say he didn’t have a broad understanding of the issues. He said he doesn’t know the DETAILS of TRUMP and CLINTON specific policies. He also said a President doesn’t need to understand “minutia”. He didn’t claim either he or Trump is “uninformed”.
In his words, he said he didn’t know anything about those issues and neither do you. I’m a fan of Scott Adams, but this was not one of his best pieces.
It really doesn’t take much of a small business to have a book value large enough for the estate tax to require the family to sell it to pay the taxes owed. A small store, a McDonald’s, a gas station, a winery, etc. may only throw off a few hundred thousand a year in profits, but the assets that make those profits possible exceed the $5M exclusion.
He doesn’t say he “doesn’t know anything”. He says he doesn’t “know the best way”. If he was claiming to be uninformed, he wouldn’t know enough to know he didn’t know the best way.
[There are many things I dont know. For example, I dont know the best way to defeat ISIS. Neither do you. I dont know the best way to negotiate trade policies. Neither do you. I dont know the best tax policy to lift all boats. Neither do you.]
I agree. I purposely used that word to describe LIV’s, not only because that is how they operate, but also because that is how Adams describes a lot of his persuasion techniques.
“Hillary wouldnt be much use to the country if she is taking care of a dying husband on the side.”
Hilarious! Like that’s going to happen. In ‘92 she made fun of the idea of staying home and baking cookies with her daughter.
Baking cookies = easy.
Taking care of a wizened, STD-riddled, smelly old perv = difficult.
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