Posted on 09/24/2016 9:40:51 PM PDT by NYRepublican72
In all, 44 percent of likely voters say they’d vote for Trump if the election were today, numerically his best since spring. Forty-six percent prefer Clinton, unchanged from an ABC/Post poll early this month and virtually unchanged since June. The 2-point gap between them is not significant, given the survey’s margin of sampling error. The race has closed from an 8-point Clinton lead in early August.
Support for third-party candidate Gary Johnson slipped to a new low, 5 percent in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, with the biggest departure among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents -- thus mainly benefiting Trump.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
God don’t like ugly hope he has some fun Monday with her
It looks like they sauced it by replacing Republicans with “other” (i.e. libertardians and greenies).
Who knows what the polls really are. The media has to have their horse race. This is about ratings.
Naturally, Old Glory flies 24/1 atop my 25’ flagpole in the front yard. Just above it is a solar powered light that keeps her illuminated at night. Usually either the Army banner flies below it or the Gadsden. Since before the end of the primaries, it has been a 3x5 white Trump fag that is now showing a bit of wear but it will stay showing the battle scars with pride.
Three other Trump signs in my neighborhood and none for her. I have started to see an uptick in Trump bumper stickers and every so often will see a little H-> window sticker but nothing even remotely close to the Obama/Biden stickers of 8 and even 4 years ago.
Of course it was weighted, Jesus H Christ...
That would depend if there really are more democrats than republicans in the country.
Actually, that’s a good question that I’ve never seen the answer to.
But what only matters is the EVs.
There is no “other” category. It has to add up to 100%. So which 8% did they leave out? There mere fact they don’t account for the “other” is significant. D+8 plus 8% unexplained. It is creative but doesn’t pass the smell test.
I created a virtual yard sign, I turned on my WIFI router ‘guest’ channel and named it Hillary for Prison ‘16
Everyone near my house will see it when they search for wifi to connect to but they won’t know who’s it is. I’ve been asked a couple of times about it and denied it. LOL
Sadly there are more democrats out there. But plus 10? I don’t think so. I would guess maybe plus 6.
Anybody know what the number was for polls that predicted previous elections correctly?
Mid-terms only have the most “die hards” go vote typically which usually favors Republicans. Presidential elections get a lot of the “softer” voters which typically lean democrats. I believe the average over the last 4-5 elections in a presidential election is +3-4D but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was 0-+2D this time.
Yes, many pollsters do have a credible turnout model where they make phone calls and force the calls to conform to a D/R/I, young/old, black/hispanic/white model. Yes, they do exist.
But there are those who try to geographically weight their area codes by strictly population, ask a self identification of likeliness of voting and report the raw results, with no screen at all. BUT . . . they may ask the D/R/I question in the call and report it in the results. THAT would be bad were it D+10. I believe Gallup uses no partisan screen at all.
I would like to remind ppl in the context of this partisan mixture in samples thing that Romney’s pollsters thought he had an excellent chance to win right up to the final days. I think his official pollster had him ahead 1 pt.
His turnout model was wrong. Simply that. Wrong.
The sources should scare Hillary with these results.
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