| This thread has been locked, it will not receive new replies. |
| Locked on 09/21/2016 9:41:28 AM PDT by Sidebar Moderator, reason: |
Posted on 09/21/2016 6:28:14 AM PDT by GilGil
The latest vote projection from elections guru Nate Silver has Republican Donald Trump just six electoral votes short of winning and one point away from equaling Hillary Clinton's popular vote.
The newest Five Thirty Eight survey Trump at 264 and Clinton at 272, two more than needed. It's the closest in recent weeks.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
Yes, I’m very concerned about the fraud.
Are we even sure that Herself will show up at the Presidential debate next Monday night? Things are looking mighty dicey at the moment.
And if somehow Herself does make an appearance, how will the encounter be framed - a feeble and uninspired performance by Herself, against the background of a vigorous and well-informed rival, or as a victim of cruel and vicious attacks by a dark barbaric predator? The latter tactic worked against Rick Lazio, might work again.
A no-show would not do much to help Herself, but it also feeds the narrative that The Donald has not yet elucidated all his primary and secondary goals for even seeking the position of President. Herself, of course, needs to explain nothing.
See my post.
Trump is within striking distance of a win. Every one will write him off for dead.
Elections have a funny way of overcoming people’s biases.
Nothing like a reality check from the raw vote.
Silver predicted every state correctly in 2012 and only missed Indiana in 2008. He is not a pollster but applies statistical methods to aggregate and analyze poll data.
“...pollsters who want to keep their reputations...”
This must be the case. For the life of me I cannot believe HRC’s numbers, any numbers, are as high as they are.
I saw a projection that 112 million people will watch debates. that is almost the entire electorate.
Almost everyone voting will be watching. She cannot hide. Trump wins in a landslide!
Need Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan or Colorado. NH alone won’t put him over.
As the front runner, as long as Trump avoids a KO or a personal meltdown on TV, all he needs is a draw to win.
Its going to be pretty tough for Hillary to beat him. She has to appear warm and likable and doing that when you’re sick - not the easiest thing in the world.
Keep in mind debates don’t really change the outcome all that much.
No one remembers them.
Ranking of Silver vs other predictors:
http://rationality.org/2012/11/09/was-nate-silver-the-most-accurate-2012-election-pundit/
He’s got his schtick and making a lot of money with it... unfortunately when it comes to politics he’s biased, and obviously biased.
Go look at Trump’s trending line on his forcast page... Notice anything that happened on 9/1?
Suddenly the linear trajectory of Trump’s growth changed noticeably... even though every indicator has been since mid August Trump has not only gotten momentum, but its been growing... Even when Hillary had the worst weekend of the season from 9-9 to 9-11 he has still kept his prediction trajectory at a lower rate... why?
Simple, he’s fudging the numbers, he clearly changed his algorithm on 9/1 to make Hillary’s collapse look as bad as its been.
He’s not completely in the tank, like many others, but its clear he has biases and they are appearing in his “analysis”.
If anything since September, Trump’s odds of winning have been growing far faster then they were in August, but if you look at Nate’s “analysis” he’s consistently shown int growing at a slower rate since 9/1.
At this point Trump has clearly overtaken Hillary... anyone presenting any analysis showing otherwise is lying and manipulating. Now should Trump have a bad debate performance that might change, but short of that, he’s in the drivers seat from hear to November 8th.
Given the innumerable rumors of Hillary being treated with a large variety of medicines like Dr. Theodor Morell did with Hitler's late stage syphilis in the 1940's, the Left dreads another "medical episode" happening in plain sight--can you imagine it happening during the first debate?
The Un-Armed Forces Medley (Trump for Prez!)
https://www.youtube.com/embed/Nh8kaXXv35c?rel=0
At this point Trump has clearly overtaken Hillary... anyone presenting any analysis showing otherwise is lying and manipulating. Now should Trump have a bad debate performance that might change, but short of that, he’s in the drivers seat from hear to November 8th.
_______________
finally, someone sees it!
These numbers are 538’s polls-plus forecast. Polls-only is slightly worse but getting better every day.
Silver has his opinions, but primarily what he does is produce models that analyze polls in a very sophisticated manner. The models are somewhat constrained by the very fact that they use polls, but if one wants to keep up with the polls at all, I don’t know of a better site than 538.
Election Night 2016 will make Reagan’s crushing Mondale look positively mild.
When run out of options, she always plays the poor victim while painting her opponent as Great Satan. The so-called most powerful woman’s ace in the hole is just playing a victim.
Her minions in the press are salivating over the possibility of Trump making a fool of himself somehow, getting angry, saying something really stupid.
With that being the menu, her best selection is "show up."
Trump might be baiting her this week by advancing more hyperbole than usual. If he sticks to facts in the debate, what a contrast!
I’ve seen it for a long time, Trump has been in the drivers seat from the get go... Hillary has never had any organic support or momentum.
The MSM and Analysts are just fools IMHO.
They have missed this entire election cycle bad.
Trump has had momentum since last year... he stalled himself a bit with the Kahn nonsense in late July, and the press and pundits foolishly interpreted his self inflicted stalling to Hillary somehow gaining momentum... she NEVER had momentum. Trump just stalled his briefly. He recognized, recovered and by mid August he was back on track, and roaring along again.
Hillary has ZERO ogranic support or enthusiasm, is on the wrong side of every single external issue that could play a part in the election... Terror attack, illegal committing a crime etc etc..
This election is about Nationalism vs Globalism, and has been since Trump took the stage.... And the globalism stand is not only going to lose, but is being promoted by the most incompetent politician (at least a retail politicking) who has ever been put forth by a major party.
Trump has always had about 5 points more support than the polls are showing... he was always going to get his base republican support back up to the traditional 90% level.. and he has had a solid lead among I’s since day one.
Hillary has a functional max of low 40s, that’s it, nothing she says or does will get her any more votes than that... basically she has the folks who will vote D no matter what, and that’s it.
The only person who could or can take down Trump is Trump... that’s it folks, always ways.
All that structural nonsense that the pundits thought gave Hillary the win, were just spotted points, they didn’t give her momentum, and they didn’t give her support, just points spotted out of the gate... they thought that would be enough and she could just lay low and win... especially after they saw Trump stumble with the Kahn stuff... but Trump regained his footing quickly and got his momentum back...
FIght like we are losing, but don’t think for one minute that Hillary can win this, she never stood a chance.
Before the race even began, what was the common theme for anyone no matter their party? No Bush, NO Clinton... yet the D’s insisted on putting up Clinton, the Republicans fortunately though begrudgenly accepted that their base was having none of it.
Dems were fools, they put up a broken down mare in a horserace against an alpha stallion... And never stood a shot... it is only now, when its becoming obvious to anyone with a few neurons working that they are realizing they are circling the drain.
Bezo’s is going ape crap trying to tear Trump down and trying to morally equivalent anything they can find questionable that Trump has done to the wholesale fraud, theft, and flat out Treason that Clinton has engaged in... and folks just aren’t buying it.
The lies and spin are not being swallowed.... but they keep trying.
“Trump at 264 and Clinton at 272”.........
Another example of a Clinton “power of suggestion” tactic. I have said before that it will be the electoral vote and NOT the popular vote that wins the election. The demodummies have been working on this forever and Trump MUST, repeat MUST get the electoral vote numbers or its all over. He has his work cut out for him to overtake the simple difference in electoral votes but he MUST DO IT!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.