ELECTORAL COLLEGE MATH, AND WHY I THINK TRUMP WILL WIN

Powerline ^ | 19 Sep 2016 | JOHN HINDERAKER

[mandaladon]

As Donald Trump has caught up with Hillary Clinton in the polls, he has likewise closed the gap in the electoral college. Ipsos/Reuters says the race to 270 votes is now nearly tied. Many are focusing on Maine, which allocates its electoral college votes by Congressional district, and where one district going for Trump might change the result.

A reader who has been studying the numbers sends a link to 538 (“Democrats Should Panic … If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week”) and adds:

I presume Trump wins Nevada. Adjusting for that, if this is accurate Trump loses 265 – 273. So he needs New Hampshire desperately to tie, and then win in the House…or NH plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District for a bare win 270 – 268, second closest in history.

That could be right. But I think more likely, Trump will win rather easily, and win going away as he did the Republican primaries. I expect him to carry states like Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Michigan, maybe even Pennsylvania. Why? Two reasons.

The first can be explained with an old story from the world of marketing:

A company came out with a new dog food, and hired an advertising firm to promote the product. The ad agency placed commercials on television and ads in magazines; millions of dollars went into the campaign. The commercials and ads were first-rate, but still the dog food did not sell. The client called a meeting at the ad agency and demanded to know what had gone wrong.

After a moment of silence, the leader of the ad agency team explained: “The dogs don’t like it.”

[vooch]

if he wins CT, figure the only states crooked will win

Mass
Maryland
Delaware
Illinois
Minnesota
New Mexico
Washington
California

pathetic

[NorthMountain]

I have come to learn that if I take the opposite action that the MSM wants me to take, I will likely be doing the right thing.

During the Cold War, we could reliably judge the worth of some US (or western, generally) policy or proposal by the vigor with which the Soviets objected to it.

[sargon]

You're an undecided?

Please, elaborate...

[JPJones]

“if he wins CT, figure the only states crooked will win

Mass
Maryland
Delaware
Illinois
Minnesota
New Mexico
Washington
California”

I think Trump will win every county in NY except Manhatten and because of that, he’ll lose NY.

But CT is mostly Ind. and could be the upset of the election.

[vooch]

Trump will get crushed in The Bronx and Manhattan but still barely win

[JPJones]

Hope so.

[Chode]

Illary's ear buds receive on a known freq, TeamTrump should make sure it's jammed or flood it with Heavy Metal music or gangster Crap...

[OrangeHoof]

Nothing beats watching Perky Katie crying when Bush won.

[OrangeHoof]

Funny. I went to the 270towin website and they show the latest Electoral Vote “predictions” of all the different media pundits and they almost all “start” with Hillary at 272 or 273, but how each arrives at their number a little differently, leaving me to surmise they each want to make certain states toss-ups but want to somehow be sure they can push Hillary over the finish line. Oddly enough, Trump doesn’t need Virginia or Pennsylvania as long as he gets Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Nevada and Colorado. Those get him to 274 and those states are all winnable with the caveats that Nevada is Harry Reid’s state and could be thrown by union mobsters like the time Reid beat Sharron Angle despite her leading in the polls and the other caveat that Colorado has become very liberal with the passing of marijuana laws and the influx of Californians.

Hoping the potheads all vote for Johnson.

[Theodore R.]

The states can make this decision now; constitutional amendments are unlikely to happen again. Too much division among the American people

[Theodore R.]

Also HI is guaranteed for Mrs. Bill: Obama ordered it.

[Theodore R.]

Queens will also be heavily for Mrs. Bill.

[Theodore R.]

Of this map, I have the least confidence in VA, PA, NY, and MI.

[vooch]

Queens and Brooklyn only need to go 55:45 Crooked and Il Ducé wins

[HamiltonJay]

NY would be lowest confidence, followed by VA... I believe PA And MI are givens and have for a long time.

Obama hemoraged 300k votes between 08 and 12 in PA and Hillary doesn’t have the enthusiasm or support anywhere near Obama had in 12.

Meanwhile R’s with forgettable candidates put up 2.6 M R votes. I don’t think Hillary can put 2.5M votes on the board in PA and Trump with his enthusiasm and pro American anti nafta message I expect to put close to 3M on the board in PA.