Posted on 09/18/2016 7:11:39 AM PDT by vette6387
Latest results: Trump 47.7, Clinton 41.0
Bump
Trump’s surge is resuming.... like I said, Hillary is done.
I’ve been following fivethirtyeight and trying to give Silver a bit of credit. As the polls have tightened, he has bumped up trumps win probably to the point where he had Trump with around 45% chance of winning yesterday morning.
However, this morning he bumped all his predictions back to showing Hillary with an above 60% chance of winning, with no new data in Hillary’s favor to support the change. Accompany the change, Silver himself wrote an article entitled “If the polls look like this a week from now, Democrats should start panicking”. In it, he postulated the theory that the latest shift in the polls is just a blip and the ‘true equilibrium’ point of the race is Hillary Clinton ahead by 3-4%. Apparently, his overnight mystical vision of the ‘true equilibrium’ was his basis for bumping up his prediction percentages for Hillary by 5-8% with no new favorable data.
So much for Nate being a numbers guy.
The evil tyrant wannabe isn’t finished until the polls close with Trump ahead, the ballots are counted accurately enough that Trump is still ahead in the Electoral College, the Electoral College votes in accordance with the election results, and President Trump is inaugurated. We cannot get complacent until the last chance for communists, socialists, democrats, and RINOs to cheat has been blocked.
This is an all-time high for Trump in this poll.
Feeble Hillary has had a few lower days, but only 2 or 3, and it is a recent low.
With any luck the trend will continue.
* * * * * * * * *
Dis you see the Feeble Hillary statement on the plane she chartered? Sounded like death and indecisive as they come. Trump could re-play this as one of his ads.
“Trump’s surge is resuming.... like I said, Hillary is done.”:
This is going to be the Reagan/Carter replay. From here on out “the polls” will start telling the truth because they can’t end up so far from reality that “ the sheeple” finally get it that they, like Hillary, are just a bunch of Marxist liars.
I’ge only been looking at 538 for about 36 hr. It makes frequent changes, but did suddenly go baCkwards this morning. When anf 538 puts Trump abvove 55%, i’ll become a believer.
PPD is 5.5 today.
Ignore all media
Get Out The Vote
Silver has poo-pooed this poll since day one.
How did this poll do in ‘08 & ‘12?
Listen to his latest podcast episode and hear ho more than slight that bias is.
It did not exist back then in its current form; they worked for some other group back in 2012 and were pretty accurate from what I recall.
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