I’ve been following fivethirtyeight and trying to give Silver a bit of credit. As the polls have tightened, he has bumped up trumps win probably to the point where he had Trump with around 45% chance of winning yesterday morning.
However, this morning he bumped all his predictions back to showing Hillary with an above 60% chance of winning, with no new data in Hillary’s favor to support the change. Accompany the change, Silver himself wrote an article entitled “If the polls look like this a week from now, Democrats should start panicking”. In it, he postulated the theory that the latest shift in the polls is just a blip and the ‘true equilibrium’ point of the race is Hillary Clinton ahead by 3-4%. Apparently, his overnight mystical vision of the ‘true equilibrium’ was his basis for bumping up his prediction percentages for Hillary by 5-8% with no new favorable data.
So much for Nate being a numbers guy.
I’ge only been looking at 538 for about 36 hr. It makes frequent changes, but did suddenly go baCkwards this morning. When anf 538 puts Trump abvove 55%, i’ll become a believer.