Posted on 09/05/2016 7:51:51 PM PDT by Helicondelta
The latest Reuters-Ipsos polling shows Republican Donald Trump up or tied with Hillary Clinton in several blue states.
** Iowa – Trump 44% – Clinton 41%
** Maine – Trump 42% – Clinton 42%
** Michigan – Trump 42% – Clinton 41%
** New Hampshire – Trump 45% – Clinton 44%
** Ohio – Trump 46% – Clinton 43%
** Wisconsin – Trump 38% – Clinton 38%
(Excerpt) Read more at thegatewaypundit.com ...
Hillary has about ten or twelve safe states.
Trump is running a national campaign. She isn’t.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see her underperform the 42-43% she’s been getting in various national polls.
For most losing Democrats, that’s the exact vote share they have gotten in every presidential election since 1968.
Hillary looks to get way less than losing generic Democrats do.
Its a humiliation for her and you wonder why she’s staying on when she is clearly phoning it in.
I see that your photo says Reuters/IPSOS as featured on FiveThirtyEight. 538 is the famous Silver org. And Silver says they don’t do polls or something like that. At any rate here is a link to that dust up. Also all 7 states listed show figures within the 3% margin of error.
I remember during the Monica/Impeachment scandal Gregg Jarrett was a legal analyst, maybe for CourtTV, and he was TOTALLY pro-Clinton—bad mouthed Ken Starr and the Repubs, didn’t see perjury or obstruction of justice, it’s a witch hunt, etc. etc.
I was surprised when he showed up on FOX as a “journalist.” He’s usually pretty harsh on Hillary now, but he seems like he can’t stand Trump.
Sounds good to me!
Great news, that means that Trump is already leading..............nobody should believe that the pro-Hillary MSM would not be ‘fudging’ the polls wherever & whenever possible........
Hillary wouldn’t be coming out of hiding if her campaign were not in serious trouble......obviously, with the major coughing fit on her airplane (and hiding for five minutes to recover) .....she has serious health problems.
Larry is a clown. His electoral map had Hillary with a 320+ vote landslide after the conventions and he said it was over.
I’m hoping he has the Dick Morris effect and disappears after the election.
The Pence Effect? In 1988 with Hoosier Quayle on the ticket Indiana went 60-40 for BushQuayle. Dukakis actually got 39.69%, so technically below 40%.
Is Hillary worse than Dukakis? He was pretty bad. Hard to say.
I was just looking at the Emerson College polls Aug 25-28 for OH, PA and MI.
In PA they have weighting of D 45: R 35: I 21 and results are 46% to 43% for Clinton.
In MI they have D 40: R 29: I 21 with results of 45% to 40% for Clinton.
In OH they have D 37: R 31: I 32 with 43.5% to 42.5% for Trump.
If those weightings are wrong as I think they are, then Trump is likely ahead to way ahead in all 3. They claim the weighting was adjusted to fit 2012 results. Unlikely that those weights will hold, plus doing the weighting after the fact by censoring data causes credibility problems.
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_865ec63b1c494be78da4af7d7834766c.pdf
I live in a democrat area in Michigan, I have not seen one Hillary sign, only a few Trump signs. I know a few democrats who said they will set this one out. They don’t like Hillary at all.
“...wish he would fall off the wagon again!!!!!”
What a horrible thing to say.
Vote Trump 2016
Great image to go with breakfast...LOL!
Around here, the average life span of a Trump sign is less than 24 hours. The liberal sign removal details are very efficient. But that doesn’t explain the total lack of H*****y signs. I haven’t seen a single one.
Emerson College?
1- Those polls are old.
2- Emerson College doesn’t have the track record of accuracy that Ipsos/Reuters has:
The rural areas of NH are much more conservative than the college towns, Portsmouth, and a couple of other Democratic strongholds. The usual causes - students, retirees from New York and Massachusetts, and of course RINOS.
If you are in NH election day please consider doing something to get Trump voters to the polls. Drive, call, get your friends out, whatever you can do.
Illinois has money. And Illinois knows how to export votes to IA and WI. Not strange at all for Hillary to go to IL.
Larry Sabato’s head will explode if Trump wins.
Listening to that smug political pinhead, I’m not even sure why we have an election because there is no electoral path available for republicans. The only way Trump wins is if a meteor hits earth on Nov 7th and kills everyone but him.
If you believe the race is that close, I’d wager you also believe in the tooth fairy, the Easter Bunny, Santa Claus and a few more.
If Hitlary is tied with Trump as shown in those polls, explain why he draws thousands to his rallies when the Hildabeast has to PAY people to attend and still only gets a few hundred (being generous) to her rallies?
I have said all along as well I think Hillary has a max, best case number of low 40s (42-43)%. That’s her best case for Nov. in my opinion.
I have also stated that I too believe her best case scenario was maybe 15 states with about 180ec votes... And a real possibility of maybe 10 states and 100-120ec votes
She’s phoning it in (or has been to this point) because well she’s Hillary. The more she’s seen the less she’s likes and the lower she polls. The polls have been showing for last month or so that she’s safe Trump was stuck in the 30s... But the polls have been wrong and off... The 2012 modeling is complete garbage and Trump has in my estimation between 4 and 7% more support (between reverse Bradley effect and attracting disenfranchised voters who most pollsters filter out as unlikely to vote) than even these improper modeled polls are showing.
She’s been trying a run out the clock campaign combined with trying to paint Trump as too crazy or dangerous because she can’t motivate people to vote for her... Only against Trump. This was only strategy she had from day one and I just don’t see it working.
When this thing breaks, and it will break, it is going to break heavily toward Trump... Hillary is a known quantity, unless this is your first election if you were going to support her you already would be.
Trump has been up 10-20 points with independents and always has been, in nearly every poll. Hillary has been tracking about average among D’s for a generic D while Trump has been tracking below average among R for an averag R.. This and bad modeling are the only 2 reasons this has appeared to be a race,
Thing for Hillary is she is now starting to lose her base, she is starting, in most recent polls to track below the typical D candidate almong D’s. Basically showing that even among D supporters there are those who have seen enough with the leaks and scandals that they won’t vote for her. This is a death knell for her. Add in the fact she has zero enthusiasm as well and it’s hard to see any way she gets anything near a win.
Meanwhile Trump on the other hand has huge enthusiasm, you know his supporters are showing up. You also know that odds are pretty high that the lower support by Rs will close by Election Day. He may not get all of them to support him, but most will come home.
It is also a relatively save bet that Trump will get more votes from D than most R do as he is aiming squarely at the blue collar and union worker that have been displaced by free trade. It may not be a massive percentage but it will be relevant. Most polling shows about 10% of D voters will not say who the will vote for.. My bet is Trump will get most of them. Also 17% of R voters won’t tell pollsters who they plan to vote for.. My bet is most of them will be Trump as well.
This basically leaves fraud as the last hope for the D. My bet is OH will be where most of it will happen since the machinations put in place and fraud there in 12 are still there. Philly region will have its typical levels as well.. But I do not think the Pilly levels will keep PA in the D column. I also feel OH probably won’t either as Trump will have more than enough support to overcome it. But if I am wrong and this becomes a thread the needle election I would not want to see a situation where OH is a must win because we know the level of fraud there can and has been massive in the past.
The debates are the next major event, and assuming Trump comes out of them looking reasonable, you will see the slow trending now toward Trump become a waterfall.
Rather Fox is LYING again.
Hillaryous. The fat lady is clearing her throat, coughing, hacking...
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